Fertilizer Prices Rise Mildly

Posted on 02/13/2020 11:24 AM

 

NOTE: We have updated our advice on booking spring phosphate and walk through our thoughts on booking potash and nitrogen in a separate post titled "Near-term Fertilizer Outlook | Advice Updated." Click the link to read our advice and our analysis, but the short version is nitrogen and phosphates are priced at a healthy discount to the same time last year and are setting up to firm seasonally. We have advised booking spring phosphate prices this week at current prices. We have also issued "soft advice" to consider booking nitrogen and potash at the same time, but stopped short of calling a bottom in anhydrous. We expect to issue more concrete advice to book spring/summer nitrogen in a week or two, but there is no reason not to book N this week as well.

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly higher with the single exception of anhydrous ammonia.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) firmed 2.10 points this week to 530.28.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia was the sole decliner in our 12-state survey this week. Kansas fell $7.27 to lead declines with Minnesota and Illinois each off around 50 cents per short ton. Nebraska led gains, firming 66 cents with Iowa adding 52 cents. All other states were unchanged on the week.
  • Urea led gains with Kansas up $22.82 and Iowa $11.01 higher. Nebraska led declines, falling $4.27 as Illinois softened $3.52.
  • UAN32 firmed less than one dollar on the week with Kansas up $6.80 and Iowa $3.53 higher. Nebraska led declines, falling $1.12 as Minnesota softened 26 cents.
  • UAN28 was higher with Iowa gaining $9.54 per short ton and Indiana firming $2.02. Michigan softened $6.10 and Illinois fell 92 cents per short ton.

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were higher on the week.
  • DAP firmed moderately with Kansas shooting $47.48 higher and Indiana up $16.42.
  • MAP was higher as well with Kansas up $13.65 and Iowa gaining $11.58.p and k indices chart
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphate prices rose at U.S. terminals in the week ended February 7.

Potash

  • Potash firmed a half dollar per short ton regionally.
  • Iowa led to the upside firming $7.07 as Kansas gained $5.26. declines nearly offset those gains however with Michigan up $4.35 and Nebraska $2.44 lower.
  • During the report week, MosaicCo., reports wholesale potash was sideways to lower at U.S. terminals.
  • Our indexed potash figure is still very near the same level as this week's Nutrient Composite Index and is at a decent premium to anhydrous ammonia. That suggests upside risk in anhydrous to $530 and perhaps beyond.

Corn Futures

  • December 2020 corn futures closed Friday February 7 at $3.94 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $649.44 per acre.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 530.28 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 4.94 points and stands at -119.16.
Fertilizer
1/27/19
2/3/20
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$508.96
$507.53
-60 cents
$506.93
Anhydrous
DAP
$413.05
$413.38
+$5.09
$418.48
DAP
MAP
$401.03
$403.40
+$2.26
$405.65
MAP
Potash
$360.05
$360.14
+51 cents
$360.65
Potash
UAN28
$237.49
$237.16
+36 cents
$237.52
UAN28
UAN32
$271.74
$273.68
+75 cents
$274.43
UAN32
Urea
$358.58
$359.07
+$1.97
$361.04
Urea
Composite
527.29
528.18
+2.10
530.28
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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