DAP Firms Amid Building Uncertainty

Posted on 08/06/2020 12:34 PM

 

Fertilizer prices were mostly lower although DAP did firm rather sharply on the week.

Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 0.77 points to 522.66.

There were some significant price moves this week, and some not-so-significant moves. As we look ahead to post harvest fertilizer applications, we are mainly focused on anhydrous ammonia and phosphates. This week, anhydrous ammonia continued lower and is now priced at a regional average just below $475 per short ton. That's a pretty good deal, but we expect NH3 prices to continue lower between now and harvest. We generally see the harvest low around the first of November.

DAP moved solidly higher. Uncertainty is the name of the game in phosphate prices until the results of an international inquiry into export prices out of Morocco and Russia is complete. We spoke with Kansas Senator Jerry Moran this morning who has been watching this situation unfold carefully. Moran commented he and his cohort are against imposing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate imports as the end result would be higher phosphate prices around the world and in the U.S. This week's higher retail DAP price could be viewed simply as corrective as DAP and MAP are both priced significantly below their respective five-year averages.

We maintain that phosphate prices will soften or hold near unchanged up through harvest, but we will be watching the markets closely for signs we need to get some booked for fall.

I was given a page in the Pro Farmer Newsletter this week and have written a detailed outlook for harvest prices on all seven of the fertilizers we cover. That outlook includes specific price targets and should be helpful in your decision making process. I urge you to check out my work in the Pro Farmer Newsletter, out Friday August 6.

Fertilizer
7/20/20
7/27/20
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$491.03
$478.66
-$3.89
$474.77
Anhydrous
DAP
$420.02
$420.01
+$7.98
$427.99
DAP
MAP
$414.49
$414.02
-63 cents
$413.39
MAP
Potash
$354.91
$354.84
-$1.07
$353.77
Potash
UAN28
$237.10
$235.93
-$1.92
$234.01
UAN28
UAN32
$265.38
$260.97
+$9.60
$270.57
UAN32
Urea
$365.01
$366.52
-$2.63
$363.89
Urea
Composite
526.65
523.43
-0.77
522.66
Composite

Corn Futures

  • December 2021 corn futures closed Friday July 31 at $3.62 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $599.86 per acre, down $3.71 on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 522.66 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 2.94 points and stands at -77.20.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Nitrogen prices were lower across the board.
  • Anhydrous led the complex lower, with South Dakota off $22.62 and North Dakota down $12.33 per short ton. All other states were lower or unchanged except Iowa, which firmed 6 cents per short ton.
  • Urea was led lower by a $14.30 drop in South Dakota and a $9.51 cut in Kansas. As with NH3, all other states were unchanged or lower with only Iowa firming, up 46 cents on the week.
  • UAN28 percent fell under the weight of Michigan which softened $10.62 as South Dakota fell $9.04. North Dakota was our only gainer, firming $2.05 per short ton.
  • UAN32 was slightly lower with Kansas off $3.18, Nebraska down 58 cents and Iowa off 20 cents per short ton. All other states were unchanged on the week.

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were mixed with DAP sharply higher and MAP off slightly.p and k indices chart
  • DAP was led higher by Minnesota which gained $92.69 (your editor checked this 3 times) on the week. No other state posted a higher price this week. Michigan softened $4.03 and Iowa fell 93 cents per short ton.
  • MAP was led lower by South Dakota which fell $4.98 and Kansas softened $2.28. All other states were unchanged or lower except Indiana, which firmed 92 cents.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphates were mostly solidly higher at U.S. terminals in the week ended July 31.

Potash

  • Potash was lower with no state posting a higher vitamin K price this week.
  • North Dakota fell $4.07, South Dakota softened $3.48 and Michigan dropped $3.13.
  • According to MosaoicCo., wholesale potash prices were sideways to lower at U.S. terminals during the report week.

nutriet composite index chart

 

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