Anhydrous Leads Fertilizers Lower... Again

Posted on 09/03/2019 4:28 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were lower across the board with four of twelve fertilizer products posting double-digit declines.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) softened 13.18 points to 585.66.

Nitrogennitrogen indices

  • Anhydrous ammonia led declines in the nitrogen segment with the "I" states finally correcting lower. Illinois fell $61.79, Indiana softened $60.58 and Iowa dropped $56.29. Wisconsin added a surprising $40.39 per short ton as Ohio firmed $4.74.
  • Urea was lower with Iowa off $56.60 and North Dakota down $29.40 on the week. Only Missouri posted a higher urea price on the week, up $4.01 per short ton.
  • UAN28% was led lower by South Dakota, which fell $21.34 as Iowa softened $20.18.
  • UAN332% was just over 3-bucks lower on the week led by Iowa, which fell $21.30 and Illinois off $15.00.

You should be at least 30% filled on anhydrous for fall and for spring applications, especially in areas outside the "I" states and Missouri. While prices in those states remain elevated, the upside appears to be equally as limited as the downside. We do recommend you fill fall needs before combines roll in your state, so keep a close watch on your local prices using the map on the profarmer.com homepage, and keep reading your Inputs Monitor.

Phosphatep and k indices

  • Phosphate prices continued lower on the week with MAP off $15.99. Illinois led to the downside falling $117.00 as North Dakota softened $37.90. Offsetting declines, Wisconsin firmed $17.73 and Missouri added $4.87.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphate prices were lower in the week ended August 30 at U.S. terminals.
  • DAP was lower as well with Iowa down $50.40 as Michigan fell $25.00 and Illinois softened $24.60 per short ton.
  • With prices down sharply this week, we are willing to let prices exhaust the downside before advising to book for fall applications.

Potash

  • Potash was led lower by South Dakota, which fell $23.30 and Illinois dropped $11.10.
  • Wholesale potash prices were mixed with product at NOLA up and Corn Belt deliveries unchanged on the week.
  • When considered on an indexed basis, potash holds a decent premium to anhydrous ammonia, indicating downside potential for vitamin K.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday August 30 at $4.04 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $667.04 per acre -- unchanged on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 585.66 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 12.46 points and now stands at -73.15.
Fertilizer
8/19/19
8/26/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$543.88
$540.17
-$17.20
$522.97
Anhydrous
DAP
$491.80
$490.81
-$10.41
$480.40
DAP
MAP
$497.38
$491.63
-$15.99
$475.65
MAP
Potash
$387.50
$387.13
-$4.14
$382.99
Potash
UAN28
$268.17
$266.91
-$5.46
$261.45
UAN28
UAN32
$300.02
$299.17
-$3.13
$296.04
UAN32
Urea
$420.53
$422.83
-$1
$411.34
Urea
Composite
600.77
598.84
-13.18
585.66
Composite

nutrient composite index

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