ENSO-Neutral Conditions Expected into Summer

Posted on Thu, 02/13/2020 - 14:29

There are roughly 60% odds ENSO-neutral conditions (where neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present) will continue through the northern hemisphere spring 2020 and 50% odds such conditions will persist through the summer of 2020, according to today’s update from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This forecast is basically the same as what the weather watcher indicated last month.

El Niño is the second most likely scenario during the spring, with odds favoring La Niña conditions as the second most likely scenario during summer.

“SSTs [sea surface temperatures] in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during early February. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor near-borderline El Niño SST conditions during late winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by spring and beyond,” CPC explains.

CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities

Season

La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

JFM 2020

0%

45%

55%

FMA2020

1%

55%

44%

MAM 2020

3%

61%

36%

AMJ 2020

8%

63%

29%

MJJ 2020

17%

57%

26%

JJA 2020

25%

52%

23%

JAS 2020

30%

48%

22%

ASO 2020

33%

44%

23%

SON 2020

37%

40%

23%