IGC Raises Global Corn Crop Projection

Posted on Thu, 01/23/2020 - 10:58

IGC balance sheetThe International Grain Council (IGC) raised its total grain production forecast for 2019-20 by 8 MMT from December to 2.17 billion MT, with increases in corn production pushing up the tally.

IGC increased its production estimate for the U.S. by 3 MMT and for China by 5 MMT, pushing its total production estimate 8 MMT higher to 1.111 MMT. Its consumption peg also climbed 8 MMT, helping to limit the increase in IGC’s corn carryover stocks estimate to 4 MMT. Global corn ending stocks of 283 MMT for 2019-20 would still be down 39 MMT from the year prior.

The 2019-20 global wheat crop is now estimated at 761 MMT by IGC, a 1-MMT decline from the month prior. The group also raised its trade projection by 2 MMT and cut its consumption projection by the same amount. Carryover is now pegged at 272 MMT, a 7-MMT increase from the year prior.

For soybeans, IGC expects bigger crops out of China and Brazil to more than compensate for reductions elsewhere. Therefore, it raised its soybean production forecast 1 MMT to 342 MMT, which would still be a 5% decline from the previous season due to a big cut to the U.S. soybean crop. IGC raised both its trade and consumption forecast, with carryover stocks expected to come in at 36 MMT, down 18 MMT from the year prior.