Ho-hum December WASDE Report

Posted on Tue, 12/10/2019 - 11:37

Market reaction

Ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading steady to fractionally higher, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents higher, SRW wheat futures were 1 to 2 cents lower, HRW and HRS futures were steady to a penny higher and cotton futures were 40 to 45 points higher.

After the reports, corn and soybean futures are trading narrowly mixed, wheat futures are steady to 3 cents higher, and cotton futures are still posting gains in the 40 to 45-point area.

 

Cotton production

Cotton: 20.206 million bales; trade expected 20.59 million bales
— compares with 20.817 million bales projected in November

USDA cut its cotton crop estimate 611,000 bales from last month to 20.206 million bales, which was 384,000 bales lower than the average pre-report peg. It reduced the national average yield by 24 lbs. to 775 lbs. per acre. USDA kept its harvested acreage estimate at 12.509 million acres.

USDA cut its Texas yield estimate by 40 lbs. to 529 lbs. per acre. It lowered the Georgia yield estimate by 34 lbs. to 898 lbs. per acre.

 

U.S. carryover

Corn: 1.910 billion bu. for 2019-20; unchanged from November

Beans: 475 million bu. for 2019-20; unchanged from November

Wheat: 974 million bu. for 2019-20; down from 1.014 billion bu. in November

Cotton: 5.5 million bales for 2019-20; down from 6.1 million bales in November

USDA’s corn ending stocks forecast is unchanged from last month. In fact, USDA made no changes to its 2019-20 supply or demand forecasts. The national average on-farm cash corn price was also unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.

USDA left its soybean ending stocks forecast unchanged from last month and made no changes to its supply or usage projections for 2019-20. However, the national average on-farm cash soybean price was lowered 15 cents from last month to $8.85 per bushel.

USDA cut its wheat ending stocks forecast by 40 million bu. from last month. On the supply side of the balance sheet, USDA trimmed imports by 15 million bu. to 105 million bushels. On the demand side, USDA raised projected exports by 25 million bu. to 975 million bushels. USDA now projects the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2019-20 at $4.55 per bu., down a nickel from last month.

USDA lowered its 2019-20 total supply projection by 611,000 bales from last month as the result of the smaller crop estimate. USDA made no changes on the demand side of the balance sheet. It projects the 2019-20 national average on-farm cash cotton price at 61 cents, unchanged from last month.

 

2019-20 global carryover (without China)

Corn: 99.49 MMT; down from 100.66 MMT in November
— compares with 107.85 MMT in 2018-19
Beans: 76.23 MMT; down marginally from 76.26 MMT in November
— compares with 90.41 MMT in 2018-19
Wheat: 142.04 MMT; down from 142.61 MMT in November
— compares with 138.08 MMT in 2018-19
Cotton: 47.08 million bales for 2019-20; down from 48.06 million bales in November
— compares with 44.02 million bales in 2018-19

 

2019-20 global production highlights

Argentina beans: 53.0 MMT; compares with 53.0 MMT in November
— compares with 55.3 MMT in 2018-19
Brazil beans: 123.0 MMT; compares with 123.0 MMT in November
— compares with 117.0 MMT in 2018-19
Argentina wheat: 19.0 MMT; compares with 20.0 MMT in November
— compares with 19.5 MMT in 2018-19
Australia wheat: 16.1 MMT; compares with 17.2 MMT in November
— compares with 17.3 MMT in 2018-19
China wheat: 133.59 MMT; compares with 132.0 MMT in November
— compares with 131.43 MMT in 2018-19
Canada wheat: 32.35 MMT; compares with 33.0 MMT in November
— compares with 32.2 MMT in 2018-19
EU wheat: 153.5 MMT; compares with 153.0 MMT in November
— compares with 136.86 MMT in 2018-19
Russia wheat: 74.5 MMT; compares with 74.0 MMT in November
— compares with 71.69 MMT in 2018-19
Ukraine wheat: 29.0 MMT; compares with 29.0 MMT in November
— compares with 25.06 MMT in 2018-19
China corn: 260.77 MMT; compares with 254.0 MMT in November
— compares with 257.33 MMT in 2018-19
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT; compares with 50.0 MMT in November
— compares with 51.0 MMT in 2018-19
Brazil corn: 101.0 MMT; compares with 101.0 MMT in November
— compares with 101.0 MMT in 2018-19
Ukraine corn: 35.5 MMT; compares with 35.5 MMT in November
— compares with 35.81 MMT in 2018-19
South Africa corn: 14.0 MMT; compares with 14.0 MMT in November
— compares with 11.8 MMT in 2018-19
China cotton: 27.25 million bales; compares with 27.25 million bales in November
— compares with 27.75 million bales in 2018-19