Friendly Reports Expected Next Week, But Price Reaction Will Be Key

Posted on Fri, 01/08/2021 - 14:26

While USDA’s reports are expected to favor bulls, the market could see a buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction to USDA data slated for release Jan. 12 at 11:00 a.m. CT. The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters, with the exception of the cotton expectations. Those figures were generated by Bloomberg.

 

Expectations for 2020
U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres

Average est.

14.470

175.3

82.543

Range

14.319-14.997

173.8-178.2

82.000-84.160

USDA November

14.507

175.8

82.527

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres

Average est.

4.158

50.5

82.305

Range

4.084-4.260

49.4-51.7

81.986-82.670

USDA November

4.170

50.7

82.289

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres

Average est.

15.660

NA

NA

Range

15.100-16.000

NA

NA

USDA December

15.949

850

9.005

 

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2020-21

Average est.

1.599

Range

1.400-1.782

USDA December

1.702

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2020-21

Average est.

139

Range

105-166

USDA December

175

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2020-21

Average est.

859

Range

837-900

USDA December

862

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

Average est.

5.39

Range

4.90-5.90

USDA December

5.70

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2020-21

Average est.

283.53

Range

269.00-287.96

USDA December

288.96

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2020-21

Average est.

82.66

Range

75.00-85.00

USDA December

85.64

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2020-21

Average est.

315.37

Range

310.00-318.36

USDA December

316.50

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2020-21

Average est.

97.51

Range

97.00-98.00

USDA December

97.52

 

Expectations for
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020

11.951

Range

11.590-12.305

USDA Sept. 1, 2020

1.995

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

11.327

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020

2.920

Range

2.775-3.215

USDA Sept. 1, 2020

0.523

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

3.252

 

Wheat – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2020

1.695

Range

1.585-1.827

USDA Sept. 1, 2020

2.159

USDA Dec. 1, 2019

1.841

 

 

Expectations for
Winter Wheat Seedings

All winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

31.528

Range

30.395-32.500

USDA final 2020

30.415

 

HRW wheat – million acres

Average est.

22.140

Range

21.352-22.900

USDA final 2020

21.362

 

SRW wheat – million acres

Average est.

5.884

Range

5.441-6.260

USDA final 2020

5.564

 

White winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

3.514

Range

3.400-3.700

USDA final 2020

3.489