Cordonnier Makes Cuts to South American Crop Forecasts

Posted on Tue, 01/05/2021 - 10:45

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean crop projection 2 MMT to 128 MMT, and his bias remains neutral to lower going forward. He notes that while weather has improved, it remains irregular. More moisture is needed in far southern Brazil (especially Rio Grande do Sul) and northeastern Brazil (particularly Bahia). Cordonnier adds, “Early yield reports from Mato Grosso are not encouraging.”

Cordonnier made no change to his Brazilian corn crop estimate of 102 MMT and his bias is neutral to lower going forward. “Recent rains in parts of southern Brazil have helped to stabilize some of the later planted full-season corn, but they came too late to avoid losses in the earlier planted full-season corn,” he reports.

Argentina’s recent suspension of corn exports until March 1 is an example of history repeating itself, observes Cordonnier. In the past, such government intervention resulted in farmers moving away from corn and toward soybean production, and Argentina’s latest action adds to his conviction farmers there won’t plant all of their intended corn acres. In northern Argentina, less than 10% of the corn crop has been planted and the planting window closing in two to three weeks. As a result, Cordonnier once again lowered his Argentine soybean and corn crop estimates by 1 MMT each to 46 MMT and 45 MMT, respectively. His bias is neutral to lower moving forward.

He points out that “recent rains were more concentrated in the western and northwestern areas of Argentina, with only limited rains in central and eastern areas,” adding that the forecast is only calling for scattered showers and warm temperatures. He also notes some intended soybean acres in La Pampa and Buenos Aires may not be seeded.

Good to excellent ratings for both crops are sliding, with just 17% of the corn crop rated as such. Forty-two percent of the country’s bean crop falls in those categories.