Cordonnier Leaning Down on South American Crop Estimates

Posted on Tue, 03/31/2020 - 10:07

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his 122 MMT soybean crop estimate for Brazil and his estimate is neutral to lower going forward. “I want to see more yield data from the two main areas left to harvest which are Rio Grande do Sul and northeastern Brazil.  The production estimates for Rio Grande do Sul keep declining and the yields out of northeastern Brazil are variable,” he explained.

Cordonnier also stuck with his Brazilian corn crop estimate of 98 MMT, and his bias is neutral to lower going forward. While some southern safrinha corn areas did receive rain over the weekend, they were not enough to recharge soil moisture and the forecast for this week is again dry. He estimates between 30% and 40% of the safrinha crop needs rain.

Cordonnier also made no change to his Argentine soybean crop estimate of 51 MMT, though his bias is again neutral to lower going forward. “The rains come and go in Argentina.  Last week was relatively dry, but the forecast for this week is calling for more rain,” he notes, adding that the country’s double-crop soybeans are most at risk of disappointing yields.

He estimates the Argentine corn crop at 49 MMT, but again, his bias is neutral to lower going forward.