Cordonnier Leaning Down on 100 MMT Corn Crop Forecast for Brazil

Posted on Tue, 05/04/2021 - 11:04

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 100.0 MMT and his bias is neutral to lower going forward. He says, “there is a definite downward risk for the crop,” detailing that dryness in south-central Brazil started at the end of March and continued through April, with each rain event disappointing. “As we get deeper into May, the chances of significant rains continue to decline,” he says.

His minimum Brazilian crop estimate is at 90 MMT, but he warns that could move lower if south-central Brazil remains dry. Between 50% and 60% of the safrinha corn crop is currently dealing with dryness, he says, adding that the driest areas are the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. 

Little relief is expected this week, and some weather watchers warn an early frost is possible for southern Brazil.

Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian soybean crop estimate of 133 MMT and his bias is neutral to slightly higher going forward. Harvest is nearing completion, with harvest in Rio Grande do Sul (the last major area to bring in crops) pushing to 80% complete late last week. 

He estimates Argentina’s bean crop at 45.0 MMT and its corn crop at 45.5 MMT, and his bias is neutral. A third of Argentina's bean crop has been harvested, which compares to 56% harvested at this point on average. Corn harvest was estimated to be 19.5% complete as of late last week, which compares to 30.5% finished on average for this point in the season.