Consultancy Trims Brazilian Soybean Crop, Strong Prices to Boost Wheat Acres

Posted on Wed, 04/01/2020 - 09:50

Brazil’s soybean crop will likely total 123.5 MMT, the consultancy Agroconsult said after completing a crop tour in the country. This is down 800,000 MT from its January forecast. The group detailed that yields hit new records in Mato Grosso, Parana and Goias, but Rio Grande do Sul saw a big (roughly 7 MMT) drop in output potential due to heat and dryness.

The consultancy also pegged safrinha corn plantings at 13.1 million hectares (32.4 million acres), a 100,000-hectare increase from its forecast last month. This helped push its second corn crop estimate 700,000 MT higher to 74.7 MMT. At this point, any unplanted safrinha corn acres in Parana will likely go to wheat, the consultancy added.

Also of note, the Brazil’s Department of Rural Economics (Deral) estimated farmers in Parana will increase their 2020 winter wheat acreage by 5% to 1.08 million hectares (2.7 million acres), late last week. Parana is the country’s largest wheat producer.

Wheat prices in Brazil climbed to new records in March. South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier commented that if the weather cooperates, the state could produce a 3.5 MMT crop this season, a 63% surge from last year’s weather battered crop.

Cordonnier explains, “Winter wheat and safrinha corn compete for the same acreage in much of Parana and the acreage increase for wheat would have been even higher were it not for record high corn prices as well.”