Conab Raises Brazilian Production Forecasts, Argentine Exchange Cuts Bean Crop

Posted on Thu, 04/08/2021 - 14:51

Brazil’s statistics agency Conab raised its soybean production estimate for the country by 408,000 MT from March to 135.54 MMT. The agency lowered its 2020-21 Brazilian soybean export forecast to 85.6 MMT, despite the bigger crop estimate and strong demand from China. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA to raise its Brazilian bean crop estimate marginally to 134.03 MMT in tomorrow’s report.

Conab’s total corn crop projection rose 897,000 MT from March to 108.97 MMT, with a bigger full-season crop estimate powering the bulk of the increase. It’s safrinha corn crop estimate now stands at 82.61 MMT, up 194,000 MT from March. Brazil will likely export 35 MMT of corn this season, while importing 1 MMT. Tomorrow, USDA is expected to trim its Brazilian corn crop estimate to 108.29 MMT from 109.00 MMT projected last month based on the Reuters poll.

Brazil’s wheat production will likely climb 2.2% to 6.371 MMT, Conab projects.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its soybean production estimate by 1 MMT, dropping it to 43 MMT. The exchange said lower-than-expected yields due to dryness during February and March sparked the cut.

Last month, USDA projected Argentina’s bean crop at 47.5 MMT, and analysts polled by Reuters on average expect the department to pare its production forecast to 46.63 MMT tomorrow.