Pro Farmer's National Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates

Posted on 08/23/2019 1:30 PM

Corn:

13.358 billion bu.; Average yield of 163.3 bu. per acre

Corn +/- 1% = 13.492 billion bu. to 13.224 billion bu.; 164.9 bu. to 161.7 bu. per acre

 

Soybeans:

3.497 billion bu.; Average yield of 46.1 bu. per acre

Soybeans +/- 2% = 3.567 billion bu. to 3.427 billion bu.; 47.0 bu. to 45.2 bu. per acre

The national estimates above reflect Pro Farmer’s view on production and yields. They take into account data gathered during Crop Tour and other factors, such as crop maturity, acreage adjustments we’ve made, historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields, areas outside those sampled on Crop Tour, etc. For corn, we lowered harvested acreage 217,000 acres from USDA’s August estimate.

Corn

Ohio: 150 bu. per acre. The yield potential measured on Tour is similar to what USDA found. But we’re skeptical the crop will reach maturity before the first freeze. The crop needs rain and several extra weeks at the end of the growing season. USDA is a bit too optimistic about the crop.

Indiana: 160 bu. per acre. There’s crop potential after rain fell during Tour. The crop still isn’t as good as it could have been, with skips and blank stalks still reflective of the yield drag from the wet spring.

Illinois: 170 bu. per acre. It won’t be the corn-producing powerhouse it usually is. Some of its best acres lost yield potential because they were planted late in less than ideal conditions.

Iowa: 181 bu. per acre. The crop is good but not great. “It looked better from the road,” was a common refrain during Tour. There were some garden areas in the west, but variability capped the crop’s upside in the rest of the state. Most of the crop should be fine if it avoids new disease threats. 

Minnesota: 167 bu. per acre. Tipback, greensnap and lagging maturity signal smaller yields. There were a lot of factors that nicked the Minnesota corn crop. Like many of the crops we saw, it needs time, heat and sun.

Nebraska: 183 bu. per acre. Nebraska won’t make up for all the problems in Illinois. Dryland corn was good, but irrigated corn was not eye-catching. It’s average, and could be susceptible to disease if things stay wet. A normal frost date may cause limited losses.

South Dakota: 140 bu. per acre. The Prairie Pothole state is back. Corn needs an additional 50 frost-free days and sunshine to finish.

 

Soybeans

Ohio: 39 bu. per acre. This year’s crop is essentially double crop beans, with pod counts nearly 40% under last year’s Tour result. Some of the crop was still flowering, so it could, in theory, build on the potential we measured. But it would need an extended season and more rain to do so.

Indiana: 46 bu. per acre. It’s certainly not a normal crop, but if you add some timely rains and a few weeks to the end of the growing season, the crop may add to the potential we measured.

Illinois: 50 bu. per acre. Pod counts plunged versus the average and much of the Illinois crop will likely perform like double-crop beans. A normal freeze would be devastating.

Iowa: 55 bu. per acre. The trend of low pod counts continued in Iowa, as the yield factory was again stunted by late planting dates and less-than-ideal soil conditions.

Minnesota: 42 bu. per acre. Adverse spring planting weather cut the bean factory. Pod counts are unlikely to rise, with few fields showing new blooms. Plants were just starting to fill pods. Warm temps and sunshine are needed to reach full potential.

Nebraska: 57 bu. per acre. We were pleasantly surprised. The state’s beans were variable, but they worked out to a pretty average crop. Plants were solidly podded and starting to fill. Weather in the weeks ahead will determine bean size. The crop is unlikely to add pods going forward.

South Dakota: 39 bu. per acre. Pod counts are down sharply and the crop needs sun and time to plump up what beans are there. The crop was pretty clean when we passed through, but high moisture means conditions are ripe for disease.

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