NOAA: Dynamic Models Favor La Nina Onset by Summer

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:22 AM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says ENSO-neutral conditions returned over the past month and most of its dynamic models favor the onset of La Niña as soon as the summer, while many statistical models favor a later onset time. NOAA gives a 49% probability for La Niña during the June through August period and a 64% probability during the July through September period.

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"For the first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean were also consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions," states NOAA. "The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero, while the upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was also near-average over the central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions."

 

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