Early Soybean Yield Reports Better Than Expected in Brazil

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:19 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier, who is currently traveling in Mato Grosso, Brazil, says producers are impressed with yields so far. He left his Brazilian crop pegs unchanged this week and has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.

Regarding the soybean crop, Cordonnier says, "On the positive side, the weather has been good this growing season and there is ample moisture for the later maturing soybeans that are now in the midst of pod filling. Early yield reports have also been better-than-expected. On the negative side, it has been very wet and some of the early maturing soybeans are waiting in the rain and they should have been harvested several weeks ago. There are still concerns about dry weather in northeastern Brazil and the return of hot and dry conditions in far southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul."

Cordonnier estimates 15% of soybeans in Mato Grosso and central Brazil are approaching maturity or setting and filling pods. "There are a lot of soybeans that are mature and are waiting to be harvested in central Brazil. It looked like to me that some of the earliest maturing fields should have been harvested several weeks ago. The normal color of mature soybeans is a tannish brown, but the color of some of these fields is now a dark brown/black color. The darker color indicates that fungal activity is increasing," he reports.

Meanwhile, Cordonnier reports planting of the safrinha corn crop has begun, with around 5% now planted. "Mato Grosso is wet and there is a lot of water standing in the fields and along the edges of the fields, so it is going to take a day or two of sun to get the planters rolling again," he says. "As a result, we saw planters parked along the side of the field. Unfortunately, the forecast is calling for more rain, but maybe not as much as last week."

Additionally, Cordonnier notes that corn prices have declined, which will not encourage additional safrinha corn acreage. As a result, he doesn't expect safrinha corn acreage to increase more than 5% compared to year-ago.

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
103.0
105.0
100.0
95.5
Argentina
51.0
53.0
48.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
169.2
175.0
161.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
92.0
84.0
66.0
Argentina
34.0
35.5
31.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
124.3
128.6
118.6
97.2


Cordonnier also left his Argentina crop pegs unchanged and has a neutral bias toward the crops. "The weather forecast in Argentina is for drier weather this week, but the damage from the flooding has already been done," he says. "It will be too late to do any significant (soybean) replanting from this point forward. The amount of acreage lost to the floods is still in dispute and I don't think anyone knows for sure what will eventually happen."


 

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