Consultant Raises Brazilian Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:24 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT from last week to 98 MMT, saying while yields are still highly variable, they are improving as harvest moves into the medium-maturing varieties. He raised his Brazilian corn peg by 2 MMT to 83.2 MMT due to prospects for expansion of safrinha acreage due to favorable prices.

"The surge in corn prices is coming just as Brazilian farmers get ready to plant their safrinha corn, which is now 3% planted in both Mato Grosso and Parana," says Cordonnnier. "It is entirely possible that the high corn prices will encourage more safrinha corn acreage than what was originally anticipated even though the planting may occur later than normal and the weather may be less than ideal."

Meanwhile, Cordonnier says 4% of Brazil's soybean crop has been harvested, which compares to 6% last year at this time. But harvest is generally in line with the five-year average and is expected to pick up as more soybeans mature and the weather improves later this week. "There are still some areas though that are receiving excessive rains. In Nova Mutum, which is located in central Mato Grosso, they received 4 inches of rain last Friday which brought the total for January to 16 inches," he says. "In these areas of excessive rainfall, there are still concerns about reduced seed quality for the early maturing soybeans, but on the other hand, the rainfall has been very beneficial for the medium- and later-maturing soybeans."

Cordonnier has a neutral to higher bias going forward toward the Brazilian crops.

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
98.0
102.0
95.0
96.2
Argentina
59.0
60.0
57.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.5
Total
172.3
178.4
166.2
171.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
83.2
87.0
80.0
85.4
Argentina
23.6
26.0
22.0
25.5
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
111.1
117.8
105.7
115.1


Cordonnier left his Argentine corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged at 23.6 MMT and 59 MMT, respectively. He says drier weather is becoming a concern, but says dryness would have to persist for one or two more weeks before it becomes critical. He adds the corn crop is more vulnerable to dryness than soybeans as "approximately 30% to 40% of the corn in Argentina is in the critical developmental phase of pre-pollination, pollinating or post-pollination."

Cordonnier has a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward toward both crops and will be watching weather developments closely.


 

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