Consultant Raises Argentine Corn Peg, Maintains Concern for Brazil's Safrina Corn

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:22 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Argentine corn crop peg this week by 2 MMT to 27 MMT due to an increase in acreage and has a neutral bias toward the crop. He says harvest is around 37% complete and yield reports were down slightly from the previous week.

Cordonnier's increase in acreage comes after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their corn acreage peg last week, although he is not as optimistic as the exchange. "This late-season increase in corn acreage also points out how difficult it is to accurately assess a country's grain production when the government does not release accurate acreage and yield estimates," he states. "The Kirchner administration in Argentina was notorious for 'cooking the books' on everything from inflation, unemployment, GDP and agricultural production. The Macri administration has said they will report economic figures as accurately as possible and there are some signs that they are trying to follow through on those promises."

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
95.5
96.0
95.0
96.2
Argentina
56.0
57.0
55.0
61.4
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.1
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
2.5
2.7
2.2
3.1
Total
165.8
168.3
163.2
171.4
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
75.0
76.0
74.0
85.4
Argentina
27.0
28.0
26.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
106.3
108.8
103.7
116.2


Cordonnier left his peg of Brazil's corn crop unchanged this week at 75 MMT, but notes concerns about the safrinha crop linger. Safrinha harvest in Mato Grosso is around 17% complete and corn yield reports continue to decline. Meanwhile, harvest in Parana is around 10% complete. He has a neutral to slightly lower bias toward the crop going forward.


 

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