P&KToday: Potash Hints at Bottoming

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM


DAP and MAP were mixed on the week as potash firmed.

  • DAP $96.83 below year-ago pricing -- lower $2.76/st on the week to $441.73/st.
  • MAP $120.57 below year-ago -- lower $1.10/st this week to $444.85/st.
  • Potash $114.06 below year-ago -- higher $1.21/st this week to $304.19/st.

The national average corn basis softened 21 1/2 cents from last week to 24 1/2 cents below March futures. The national average cash corn price fell 24 cents from last week to $3.24. Basis is softer than the three-year average, which is 1/2 cent below futures for this week.

InputsMonitor.comDAP led gains in the P&K segment this week firming $2.76. North Dakota added $27.16 to lead DAP gains. Indiana firmed $6.05 and Minnesota firmed $4.70. Five states were unchanged as Ohio led declines, falling $3.93 and Missouri down $1.48.

MAP was the only fertilizer in our weekly survey to post declines this week. Michigan was our leader to the downside here falling $9.44 as Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota were all about $2.50 lower. Only Illinois and Wisconsin were unchanged as gains were led by North Dakota up $3.67 and Indiana up $1.54.

Potash was led higher by a $5.63 increase in Iowa pricing, Nebraska firmed $3.11 and Indiana added $2.86. Two states were unchanged as South Dakota led declines, posting a 49 cent drop as Kansas potash fell just 27 cents per short ton.

InputsMonitor.comIn this week's TheNFiles, I wrote that we are keeping a very close eye on urea and UAN32% since both are firming in what should be a post-harvest demand lull. I would throw potash into that same category and even with potash prices testing long time lows, we do not want to miss the opportunity the low price presents. PotashCorp last week announced production cuts at a three different production facilities. While we expect that to have only mild upward impacts on price, we want the market to prove that post-harvest demand has been fully exhausted and let retail potash express its full downside potential. As with nitrogen, we are not ready to book spring potash just yet, but the time may not be far off.

We are less concerned with phosphate at the moment and we believe DAP and MAP will fall farther closer to the first of the year. Wholesale values are lower with Tampa unchanged on the week which points to price softness ahead.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended November 25, 2016.

DAP is priced at 46 1/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 41 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 25 1/2 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 12/1/2016

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.46 1/4
$0.41 1/2
$0.25 1/2
$0.56 3/4
$0.53 1/2
$0.34 3/4





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