P&KToday: Potash Agrees with Urea

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM


DAP and MAP were lower on the week as potash continued higher.

  • DAP $61.64 below year-ago pricing -- lower 19 cents/st on the week to $437.81/st.
  • MAP $82.70 below year-ago -- lower 44 cents/st this week to $437.85/st.
  • Potash $64.96 below year-ago -- higher $3.11/st this week to $315.71/st.

The national average corn basis firmed 1 1/4 cents from last week to 1 3/4 cents below March futures. The national average cash corn price firmed 8 1/2 cents from last week to $3.63 1/4. Basis is marginally softer than the three-year average, which is 1 cent above futures for this week.

inputsmonitor.comMAP was our downside leader in the P&K segment this week. Michigan led declines in MAP falling $8.91 as South Dakota softened $3.19 and Iowa fell $1.14. Ohio and Wisconsin were unchanged as Kansas firmed $2.71, Missouri added $2.55 and Illinois gained $1.16.

DAP fell 19 cents per short ton on the week. Michigan led to the downside here as well, falling $6.17 along with Illinois which softened $2.42. Four of the states in our survey were unchanged as Indiana and Kansas firmed just shy of 3 bucks as Minnesota added $1.92.

Potash was higher again on the week. Ohio was unchanged and all other states posted a higher price this week. Gains from state to state were mild, led by Illinois which added $6.88, Missouri firmed $6.56 as Indiana gained $5.78.

inputsmonitor.comIn this week's TheNFiles, I pointed out urea's bullish stance based on the consensus among our states which are al higher expect for one state, which is unchanged. It is the identical situation with potash this week. One state unchanged, all others higher. Potash is building bullish momentum, as it continues higher, and this week lost its spot as the lowest priced nutrient in our survey to UAN28%. The extraordinary value that potash presented just a few weeks ago has evaporated. I expect potash to continue higher and eventually level off. Historically, potash has preferred to maintain a tight range and a flat trajectory. Get current to 50% filled for spring potash.

Phosphate looks more like UAN, if we continue comparing P&K segment price moves to nitrogen. A greater number of unchanged states, and offsetting gains and losses from state-to-state. Urea and potash are showing us what the front end of a fertilizer price recovery looks like and while phosphate, UAN and NH3 exhibit a much different price performance this week, we will keep a close eye on all of our fertilizers for opportunities to finish booking fertilizer for spring.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended January 13, 2016.

DAP is priced at 45 3/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 40 3/4 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 26 1/2 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 1/18/2017

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.45 3/4
$0.40 3/4
$0.26 1/2





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