P&KToday: Phosphate Respects Key Corn Chart Low

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM

 

DAP and MAP were lower on the week as potash firmed slightly.

  • DAP $90.99 below year-ago pricing -- lower 69 cents/st on the week to $443.78/st.
  • MAP $115.09 below year-ago -- lower 10 cents/st this week to $448.48/st.
  • Potash $123.21 below year-ago -- higher 68 cents/st this week to $301.88/st.
  • The average cash corn price figured in to P&K this week is $3.09 3/4 per bushel.

The national average corn basis softened 1 1/4 cent from last week to 22 1/4 cents below December futures. The national average cash corn price fell 4 3/4 cents from last week to $3.32 1/4. Basis is softer than the three-year average, which is 2 cents below futures for this week.

InputsMonitor.comDAP was our downside leader in the P&K segment this week falling just 69 cents by the short ton. Gains and declines were all within 5 bucks of unchanged. Indiana led declines falling $4.72 per short ton as Michigan fell $2.89 and Nebraska dropped $2.50. Only the Dakotas were unchanged as Missouri led gains, firming $2.09, Iowa firmed $1.70 and Kansas added $1.54.

MAP was down a dime in this week's price action. Illinois posted our only MAP declines, falling $7.59 per short ton. Five of the twelve states we survey were unchanged as mild gains were led by Michigan, up $1.93 and Minnesota firming $1.63.

InputsMonitor.comPotash was slightly firmer this week adding 68 cents regionally. Only two states posted lower prices this week. Indiana fell $2.64 and Minnesota softened $1.37. Only South Dakota was unchanged as Michigan firmed $4.51 to lead gains along with Illinois, up $2.07.

Perspective -- Last week's mild gains in phosphate caught our attention, but price action this week was very quiet despite increasing farmer demand for post-harvest phosphate applications. Industry watchers project mild post-harvest price pressure and the seasonal price path agrees. We anticipate DAP and MAP to bottom early in 2017 and while price pressure between now and then will likely be limited, there should be better deals ahead for spring applications..

InputsMonitor.comAlso interesting to note the chart at right where we see indexed phosphate leveling off just slightly above the September expected new-crop revenue low of $573.22 per acre. While it is dangerous to look to fertilizer markets to pick bottoms in the corn market, it is worthy of note that phosphate price action over the past three weeks has been flat at that key level. Expected new-crop corn revenue has since firmed above our indexed phosphate figures, leaving DAP and MAP at a discount to per acre corn revenue along with the rest of the fertilizer segment.

Potash this week acted a lot like phosphate did last week, posting conspicuous, but mild gains from state-to-state. A 68 cent per short ton rise is important to note, but my expectation is that potash will retrace all that was gained this week in next week's price survey. Even if that is not the case and potash runs higher next week, vitamin K is currently priced so low compared to the rest of the entire fertilizer segment that we will have time to book before potash firms sharply, should it choose to.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended October 21, 2016.

DAP is priced at 46 1/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 41 3/4 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 25 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 10/28/2016

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.46 1/4
$0.41 3/4
$0.25
Average
Year-ago
$0.56 1/2
$0.53 1/4
$0.35 1/2
Year-ago

 

InputsMonitor.com

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