USDA on Tuesday Releases World Supply and Demand Forecasts

Posted on 04/08/2019 3:45 AM

2017 Census of Ag | FY 2020 budget hearings | Disaster aid | World Bank, IMF meetings


Congress is in this week, then departs for two weeks on their Easter recess. USDA on Tuesday releases monthly supply and demand updates. The World Bank and IMF hold their spring meetings in Washington, with IMF on Tuesday releasing updates to its World Economic Outlook. On Thursday, USDA releases the 2017 Census of Agriculture. In Congress, a spate of Fiscal Year 2020 budget hearings will take place, including testimony from Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin, USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue and EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler.

 

Congress has a busy agenda this week ahead of their two-week Easter recess, with a spate of hearings on the Fiscal Year 2020 budget and continued bipartisan talks on trying to get a consensus on disaster aid, including some funding for the impacts of Midwest floods this year.

FY 2020 budget hearings will include testimony from several Trump Cabinet officials. Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin will likely be asked about some trade policy issues relative to ongoing trade agreement talks with China since he has been a major participant along with U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer. USDA Sec. Sonny Perdue appears several times before Congress and will likely be asked about his proposal to relocate the Economic Research Service and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture outside Washington, along with comments about the current rural economy. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is usually asked about the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) issues, especially relative to upcoming mandate levels, year-round E15, RIN reform and whether or not RFS waiver amounts will be reallocated.

Tariffs to be focus of economic meetings. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund hold their annual meetings in Washington, with economic officials anxious about the prospects for global growth amid trade tensions between the U.S. and many of its partners, including Mexico, Canada, the European Union and — at the top of many minds right now — China.

The North American Agricultural Journalists annual meeting is in Washington the first two days of the week and this annual confab usually hears from legislative and administration officials.

On Thursday, USDA releases the 2017 Census of Agriculture and analysts will start pouring through the latest trends in farm structure and other details about the business of agriculture.

EU considers Brexit extension. An emergency European Union summit is set for Wednesday, where leaders will consider Prime Minister Theresa May’s request that negotiations be extended a second time. Britain is currently due to leave the EU on Friday. Any extension will require unanimous agreement by the 27 EU member states.

Economic updates for the week include:

Monday:
— Factory Orders

Tuesday:
— National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. Economists forecast a 101.6 reading, even with February’s.
— Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) Survey for February. The consensus estimate is for 7.54 million job openings, in line with January’s figure.

Wednesday:
— Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes from it previous meeting in March.
— BLS releases its Consumer Price Index for March. Expectations are for a year-over-year rise of 1.8%, up from February’s 1.5% gain. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index is seen jumping 2.1%.
— Treasury Department releases the U.S. budget statement for March. Economists forecast a $179 billion deficit, after a $234 billion shortfall in February, the largest monthly deficit in U.S. history.

— MBA Mortgage Applications
— Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
— European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The market expects the ECB’s key short-term interest rate to remain at minus 0.4% amid weakening growth prospects in the euro zone.
— European Union holds an emergency summit to discuss the ongoing Brexit ordeal. Any requests for an extension of the April 12 deadline for a hard exit by the United Kingdom would be debated at this time.

Thursday:
— BLS releases its Producer Price Index for March. Consensus estimates are for a 1.8% year-on-year rise after a 1.9% gain in February. Without food and energy prices, the index is expected to jump 2.5%.
— Jobless Claims
— Fed Balance Sheet

Friday:
— University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Expectations are for a 98 reading, roughly in line with March’s data.
— Import and Export Prices

Fed speakers on tap:

Tuesday:
— Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida speaks on the Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Spring 2019 Institute Conference.

Wednesday:
— Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell speaks about the economy at the House of Representatives Democratic Caucus 3-day annual retreat in Leesburg, Virginia.

— Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles speaks on progress on the transition to risk-free rates at the Financial Stability Board Roundtable on reforming major interest rate benchmarks, Washington, DC.

Thursday:
— New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams delivers keynote address at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, in New York, N.Y.
— St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard delivers a presentation at the Community Development Foundation of Tupelo on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Tupelo, Missouri.
— Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida delivers the U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Institute of International Finance Washington Policy Summit, Washington, DC.
— Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Community Banking in the Age of Innovation at the Fed Family Luncheon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.

Friday:
— Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic delivers remarks at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies and the Fiscal Research Center at Georgia State University in Atlanta.

Key USDA and international agriculture and energy-related reports and events on tap:

Monday, April 8

Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Poultry Slaughter
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Energy reports and events:

  • Gulf Intelligence Saudi Arabia Energy Forum 2019 in Riyadh, with speakers Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih

Tuesday, April 9

Ag reports and events:

  • WASDE
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grains: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • Japan’s Ag Ministry announces wheat-purchasing plan in import tender
  • Brazil’s Unica cane crush, sugar production
  • Annual Africa Sugar Conference, April 9-11, in Nairobi, Kenya. Speakers include officials from the International Sugar Organization, the FAO and Czarnikow

Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook

Wednesday, April 10

Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Dairy Products
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Dairy Monthly Data
  • Wheat Data
  • Feed grains Database
  • FranceAgriMer updates French crop estimates
  • Initial wheat/barley estimates for 2019-20, Buenos Aires
  • Black Sea Grain conference
  • AmSpec, Intertek and SGS date on Malaysia’s April 1-10 palm oil exports
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board releases data on palm oil stocks, exports and production as of end-March
  • Japan’s Ag Ministry releases result of feed-grain import tender Tokyo

Energy reports and events:

  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
  • Columbia Global Energy Summit in New York

Thursday, April 11

Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Cotton & Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • 2017 Census of Agriculture
  • Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange weekly crop report
  • Japan’s Ag Ministry releases result of milling-wheat import tender
  • Brazil crop agency Conab releases 7th report on 2018-19 grain crop, Sao Paulo

Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • IEA monthly Oil Market Report

Friday, April 12

Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts.
  • Peanut Prices
  • Crop Values
  • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
  • Season-Average Price Forecasts
  • China customs to publish March and 1Q soy import data

Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

Other reports and events this week include:

Monday, April 8

  • Congress. House and Senate are both in session but Democrats will hold their policy retreat in Leesburg, Virginia and the House will not be in session Thursday and Friday.
  • Federal Reserve Board meets to consider new rules governing the oversight of foreign banks.
  • North American Agricultural Journalists annual meeting, through Tuesday.
  • State FIFRA Issues Research and Evaluation Group working committees meeting, through Tuesday.
  • Antibiotic resistance. Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health holds a meeting by teleconference of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria.
  • U.S./Mexico border closure. Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC) Mexico Institute conference call briefing on "The Consequences of a US-Mexico Border Shutdown."
  • Global business. U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC) holds its second annual Transatlantic Business Works Summit. Commerce Undersecretary for International Trade Gilbert Kaplan and Clete Willems, deputy assistant to the president for international economics and deputy director of the National Economic Council among those to participate.

Tuesday, April 9

  • President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi meet at the White House and discuss military, economic and counter-terrorism cooperation.
  • Global economy. International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meeting in Washington, DC, April 9-15. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and World Bank Interim President Kristalina Georgieva speak.
  • IMF updates its World Economic Outlook.
  • Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida speaks on the Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Spring 2019 Institute Conference.
  • FY 2020 budget: Justice. House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "Department of Justice Budget Request for FY 2020." Attorney General William Barr to testify.
  • Foreign assistance budget. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on "FY 2020 Foreign Assistance Budget and Policy Priorities." USAID Administrator Mark Green.
  • FY 2020 budget: Treasury. Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin testifies at House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the Dept.'s FY 2020 budget request.
  • Highway safety. House Transportation & Infrastructure Highways and Transit Subcommittee hearing on "Every Life Counts: Improving the Safety of our Nation's Roadways."
  • FY 2020 budget: TSA & Coast Guard. House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing on "Securing America's Transportation and Maritime Systems: A Review of the Fiscal Year 2020 Budget Requests for the Transportation Security Administration and the US Coast Guard.".
  • Puerto Rico power authority. House Natural Resources Committee hearing on "The Status of the 'Rebuilding and Privatization of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority.'"
  • FY 2020 budget: EPA. House Energy & Commerce Environment and Climate Change Subcommittee hearing on "The FY 2020 EPA Budget." Administrator Andrew Wheeler to testify.
  • FY 2020 budget: USDA. House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on "Department of Agriculture Budget Request for FY 2020." USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue to testify.
  • International finance. House Financial Services Committee hearing on "The State of the International Financial System." Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to testify.
  • Climate change & homeland security. House Homeland Security Emergency Preparedness, Response and Recovery Subcommittee hearing on "Assessing the Homeland Security Impacts of a Changing Climate."
  • Climate change inaction. House Oversight & Reform Environment Subcommittee hearing on "Climate Change, Part I: The History of a Consensus and the Causes of Inaction."
  • U.S. southern border. Environment Subcommittee hearing on "Climate Change, Part I: The History of a Consensus and the Causes of Inaction."
  • FY 2020 budget: State Department. Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee hearing on the proposed budget estimates and justification for FY 2020 for the State Department. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to testify.
  • Consumer product protection. House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee hearing.
  • Farm credit. Farm Credit Administration meeting of the board. Agenda includes: Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and FCS Condition and Performance; and Farm Credit System Building Association Auditor's Report on 2018 Financial Audit.
  • Food labeling. USDA U.S. Codex office holds a meeting of the Codex Alimentarius Commission's Committee on Food Labeling on agenda items and draft U.S. positions to be discussed at the 45th Session of the Codex Committee on Food Labeling (CCFL) of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, in Ottawa, Canada, May 13-17, 2019.
  • International food and agriculture. U.S Agency For International Development (USAID) holds a meeting by webinar of the Board for International Food and Agricultural Development to solicit feedback from the US university community on their experiences implementing the regulations that govern USAID funded Exchange Visitors and Participant Training, as per the Automated Directives System
  • North Korea sanctions. Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) holds a discussion on "Converting Maximum Pressure to Maximum Leverage: The Role of Sanctions in Negotiations with North Korea."
  • Huawei. Technology Policy Institute (TPI) discussion on "The Costs and Benefits of Banning Huawei."

Wednesday, April 10

  • Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome "Jay" Powell to speak about the economy at the House of Representatives Democratic Caucus 3-day annual retreat in Leesburg, Virginia; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles speaks on progress on the transition to risk-free rates at the Financial Stability Board Roundtable on reforming major interest rate benchmarks, Washington, DC.
  • Waterways investment. House Transportation & Infrastructure Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee hearing on "The Cost of Doing Nothing: Why Full Utilization of the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund and Investment in our Nation's Waterways Matter."
  • Sustainable agriculture. House Appropriations Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "Economic Opportunities for Farmers through Sustainable Agricultural Practices."
  • Child nutrition reauthorization. Senate Ag Committee hearing.
  • Banking. House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) leads hearing with heads of the biggest U.S. banks on “Holding Megabanks Accountable: A Review of Global Systemically Important Banks 10 years after the Financial Crisis.”
  • FY 2020 budget: Transportation. House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "Department of Transportation Budget Request for FY2020." Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao to testify.
  • FY 2020 budget: Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation. Senate Energy-Water Appropriations Subcommittee hearing.
  • FY 2020 budget: Justice. Senate Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on the proposed budget estimates and justification for FY 2020 for the Department of Justice. Attorney General William Barr to testify.
  • Pipeline safety. Senate Commerce, Science & Transportation Transportation and Safety Subcommittee hearing on "Pipeline Safety: Federal Oversight and Stakeholder Perspectives."
  • Rural education. Aspen Institute holds a book discussion on "No Longer Forgotten: The Triumphs and Struggles of Rural Education in America."
  • Broadband mapping. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing.
  • Energy infrastructure. House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing.
  • Trade programs. Senate Small Business (SBA) and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing on SBA’s international trade programs.
  • Taxes. Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Charles Rettig testifies at Senate Finance Committee hearing on “The 2019 Tax Filing Season and the 21st Century IRS.”

Thursday, April 11

  • President Trump meets South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the White House to discuss nuclear talks with North Korea.
  • Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams to deliver keynote address at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, in New York; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard to deliver a presentation at the Community Development Foundation of Tupelo on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Tupelo, Missouri; Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida delivers the US Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Institute of International Finance Washington Policy Summit, Washington, DC; Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on Community Banking in the Age of Innovation at the Fed Family Luncheon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
  • 2017 Census of Agriculture released by USDA.
  • Climate change. Senate Energy and Natural Resources hearing on opportunities for energy innovation and other potential solutions to help address global climate change.
  • FY 2020 budget: USDA. Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the FY 2020 funding request and budget justification for the Agriculture Department. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue to testify.
  • Organic Trade Association webinar on organic fraud prevention solutions.
  • Brazil outlook. Brookings Institution discussion on "The Latest on Brazil's Economic Reforms." Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes to appear.

Friday, April 12

  • Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic delivers remarks at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies and the Fiscal Research Center at Georgia State University in Atlanta.
  • Brexit. Atlantic Council holds a discussion on "The European Union and Brexit."

 

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