Evening Report | April 18, 2024

Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.

Exchange: Leafhopper disease knocks $1.3 billion off Argentina’s corn crop... A leafhopper insect plague in Argentina that spread corn stunt disease has knocked an estimated $1.3 billion off the expected 2023-24 corn crop, the director of economic studies at the Rosario Grains Exchange said. The exchange slashed its corn production forecast by 6.5 MMT and warned of possible additional losses.

“At the moment, the losses caused by the leafhopper are estimated at around $1.268 billion,” Julio Calzada, head of the exchange’s economic studies department, told Reuters.

Argentine farmers call for ‘urgent’ end to wheat export taxes... Argentine farmers called on the government to “urgently” eliminate taxes on wheat exports, as they struggle with high production costs and low international prices. The Argentine Rural Confederations (CRA), one of four major agricultural associations in Argentina, said: “We urge the authorities to urgently review these policies and work to implement measures that promote an environment conducive to the development of wheat production, where the elimination of export duties should come first.”

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentine farmers to plant 5.9 million hectares (14.6 million acres) to wheat for 2024-25, which would be below the five-year average of 6.34 million hectares. Besides what farmers say are crippling exports taxes and high production costs, the threat of a return of La Niña is likely to reduce wheat seedings.

IGC cuts world corn production forecast... The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2024-25 global corn production by 7 MMT to 1.226 billion MT, reflecting a lower outlook for the U.S. crop. However, global corn production is still expected to increase 3 MMT (0.2%) from last year.

IGC trimmed its 2024-25 global wheat crop outlook by 1 MMT from last month to 798 MMT, though that would still be up 9 MMT (1.1%) from last year.

IGC left its 2024-25 global soybean crop forecast at 413 MMT, which would be up 23 MMT (5.9%) from last year.

Warmer first half of growing season, uncertain precip outlook... The extended weather forecast from the National Weather Service calls for above-normal temperatures across all of the contiguous U.S. aside from a bubble of “equal chances” over the northwestern Corn Belt/Northern Plains during the May through July period. The bulk of the country, including most of the Corn Belt and Plains, is expected to see “equal chances” of average, below-average and above-average rainfall during the 90-day period. There are elevated odds of above-normal rainfall over the southeastern quadrant of the country, including the southeastern Corn Belt, Delta and Southeast. Below-normal rainfall is expected over the far southwestern Plains and Pacific Northwest through July.

The warmer temps would be consistent with the La Niña weather pattern that is expected to develop sometime during summer. If La Niña develops, the “equal chances” for rainfall over the central U.S. would likely switch to “below normal.”

Click here to see related maps.

HRW drought footprint expands... As of April 16, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed 39% of the U.S. was covered by abnormal dryness/drought, up one percentage point from the previous week. USDA estimated 24% of U.S. winter wheat areas were covered by drought, up six points from the previous week, with notable increases across the Central and Southern Plains. However, there’s little D3 or D4 drought in HRW areas, so conditions could improve rather quickly with timely rains.

In HRW areas, dryness/drought covered 97% of Kansas, 43% of Colorado, 59% of Oklahoma, 47% of Texas, 30% of Nebraska (mostly in the eastern half of the state), 31% of South Dakota and 86% of Montana.

In SRW areas, dryness/drought covered 70% of Missouri, 19% of Illinois, 6% of Indiana, 0% of Ohio, 42% of Michigan, 25% of Kentucky and 16% of Tennessee.

Click here to view related maps.

Renewable fuels industry waiting for key policy decisions...The chief economist for the U.S. Renewable Fuels Association says the biofuels industry is waiting on a couple of key announcements. Scott Richman says, “We and everybody are looking forward to the release of the GREET version life cycle analysis model that will be used for sustainable aviation fuel and that’s going to be coming up pretty soon. That’s something for people to follow.”

He says sales of E15 fuel blends this summer is another concern. “The EPA has to go through certain protocols. There are certain requirements that have to be met for an emergency waiver to be issued for the summertime in order to allow E15 in conventional gasoline areas.” Richman says a decision from EPA is expected soon because fuel terminals will begin turning over on May 1.

Tai pressured due to lack of trade accords... The pressure on U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai regarding the absence of free trade agreements (FTAs) continues from both sides of the political aisle. Lawmakers express frustration over the Biden administration’s lack of pursuit in FTAs, particularly in addressing barriers to U.S. agricultural goods and expanding market access. Tai defended the administration’s approach by highlighting efforts to open access for agricultural products totaling $20 billion over the past three years. She emphasized that while comprehensive FTAs are not being negotiated, the administration is working to reduce non-scientific barriers and negotiating agriculture chapters addressing these issues.

Lawmakers also criticized Tai for not pursuing more trade cases with China, with Tai explaining the challenges of these actions and indicating frustration with China’s response to WTO rulings. Tai mentioned discussions with China regarding their commitments under the Phase 1 agreement but didn’t offer specifics on outcomes. She assured that the review of Section 301 tariffs on China would be completed soon but didn’t provide a timeline for releasing results.

The hearings underscore lawmakers’ focus on China and their disappointment with the absence of new FTAs. Tai’s assertion that there are no easy FTAs reflects the challenges in achieving positive trade outcomes, indicating ongoing complexities in the Biden administration’s trade policy.