Evening Report | April 15, 2024

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Winter wheat conditions decline, as expected... As of Sunday, USDA rated 55% of the winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from the previous week and in line with expectations. The portion of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” increased one point to 13%.

USDA said 11% of the winter wheat crop was headed, four points ahead of the five-year average. The crop was 40% headed in Texas (32% average) and 15% in Oklahoma (8%). None of the crop was headed in Kansas, which is normal for this time of year.

Corn planting advances to 6% done... As of Sunday, USDA reported 6% of the corn crop was planted, one point ahead of the five-year average but one point less than analysts expected. Across the Corn Belt, planting stood at 3% in Illinois (4% average), 1% in Indiana (2%), 4% in Iowa (2%), 13% in Kansas (10%), 3% in Minnesota (0%), 26% in Missouri (10%), 2% in Nebraska (1%), 1% in South Dakota (0%) and 1% in Wisconsin (0%).

Soybean planting starts quicker than average... USDA reported 3% of the soybean crop was seeded, two points ahead of the five-year average and one point more advanced than analysts expected. Across the Corn Belt, planting stood at 4% in Illinois (1% average), 2% in Iowa (1%), 1% in Kansas (0%), 1% in Minnesota (0%) and 8% in Missouri (1%).

Average cotton planting pace... USDA reported cotton planting advanced to 8%, equal to the five-year average. Planting stood at 13% in Texas and 1% in Georgia, both one point behind average for this time of year.  

Spring wheat seeding ahead of average... USDA reported 7% of the spring wheat crop was seeded, one point ahead of the five-year average for mid-April and in line with analysts’ expectations. Top producer North Dakota had 3% of the crop seeded, equal to the five-year average.

NOPA crush sets all-time high in March... Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 196.4 million bu. of soybeans in March, which was a record for any month, eclipsing 195.3million bu. in December 2023. The crush pace increased 10.2 million bu. (5.5%) from February and 10.6 million bu. (5.7%) from March 2023.

NOPA data implies a full March crush of 206 million bushels. Based on that level, USDA’s forecast for 2023-24 crush at 2.300 billion bu. appears light, though the pace is likely to slow somewhat once Argentina starts actively crushing new-crop supplies.

Soyoil stocks totaled 1.851 billion lbs. at the end of March, up 161 million lbs. from February and the largest supply since May 2023.

Exchange notes concerns for Argentine soybeans with heavy late-season rains... Heavy rainfall across Argentina’s core soybean production areas has caused harvest delays and could lead to production losses, the Rosario Grain Exchange said. March rainfall was above normal and since last Friday, at least 70 millimeters (2.76 inches) of rain fell across most of the agricultural region, with peaks of 140 millimeters in some parts.

“There is beginning to be a lot of concern about the soybean harvest because there are many areas that have not finished drying,” said the head of the exchange’s agricultural estimates. “Everything will depend on whether this phenomenon passes and whether we have rapid drying conditions.”

Last week, the exchange cut its Argentine soybean production estimate to 51 MMT, though that was tied to heat in January and February.

World Weather Inc. noted, “Additional rainfall today will likely further slow or delay harvesting and general fieldwork across Argentina. Quality impacts should be minimal. The warmer and drier weather later in the workweek will gradually firm the ground and support a better environment for the harvest. The next round of rain over the weekend could then again impact harvest rates. Although harvesting will advance slowly at times in the coming weeks, production potentials will not be significantly impacted.”

APHIS will continue to use HPAI label for dairy outbreak... USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) will continue using the name highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) relative to the current situation in dairy, despite an aborted attempt by the American Association of Bovine Practioners (AABP) to change it to Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV). According to APHIS: “From USDA’s perspective, highly pathogenic avian influenza or H5N1 are the most scientifically accurate terms to describe this virus. This is also consistent with what the scientific community has continued to call the virus after it has affected other mammals.  Since the virus is not highly pathogenic in mammals, H5N1 is the most fitting of the two scientifically correct options.  As a reminder, genomic sequencing indicates there is no change to this virus that would make it more transmissible to humans, and the CDC considers risk to the public to be low.”

The recent detection of HPAI in livestock has prompted concerns about potential risks to swine herds. The Swine Health Information Center and the American Association of Swine Veterinarians are hosting a webinar Friday to address these concerns and provide updates on influenza A virus, which includes strains found in animals.

HPAI confirmed in Minnesota commercial turkey flock... On April 11, APHIS confirmed an HPAI outbreak in a commercial turkey flock in Meeker County, Minnesota. This marked the first HPAI detection in a commercial poultry flock in Minnesota this year.

Honig appointed ASB chair... USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) appointed Lance Honig as Chair of USDA’s Agricultural Statistics Board, as well as the Methodology Division Director. Honig has served in an acting capacity for both roles since November 2023. As the chair, he will lead the preparation and dissemination of market-sensitive agricultural forecasts and estimates.

Honig has a wide range of experience with NASS, including most recently serving as the Crops Branch Chief since 2008. Honig replaces the prior chair, Joe Parsons, who held the position since 2016. Parsons is now the NASS Associate Administrator and is currently Acting Administrator.

End of Panama’s dry season brings hope for increased traffic through Panama Canal... Despite facing challenges from El Niño-induced high temperatures, which led to Gatun Lake’s water levels dropping and hindering canal operations, recent rainfall has provided some relief. The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) is cautiously optimistic about returning to normal operations by 2025, although this depends on weather conditions.

The outlook for relief lies partly in meteorological forecasts, with the possibility of La Niña conditions bringing cooler temperatures and increased precipitation, potentially easing the canal’s operational challenges. However, delays in canal transit have already impacted ports like Savannah, highlighting the interconnectedness of global trade routes and infrastructure projects.

Retail sales jumped much more than expected in March... U.S. retail sales surged 0.7% compared to the previous month and 4.0% annually in March. Notable increases were observed in various sectors, including nonstore retailers (2.7%), gasoline stations (2.1%), miscellaneous store retailers (2.1%) and building materials and garden equipment (0.7%). Additionally, gains were recorded in food and beverage stores (0.5%), health and personal care stores (0.4%), and food services and drinking places (0.4%). However, certain sectors experienced declines in sales, such as sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores (-1.8%), clothing (-1.6%), electronics and appliances (-1.2%), general merchandise stores (-1.1%), autos (-0.9%) and furniture (-0.3%).

Excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, core retail sales, which are used in GDP calculations, jumped 1.1%. This suggests a strong underlying momentum in consumer spending, which is a key driver of economic growth.