Biden Trade Policy in Focus This Week

Vilsack to make several appearances this week

Washington Focus

A hearing in the House and Senate on the Biden administration’s trade policy and continued hearings on fiscal year 2025 budgets are the focus this week.

— U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai appears Tuesday before the House Ways & Means Committee on the Biden administration’s trade policy. On Wednesday she will address the Senate Finance Committee on the same topic. Farm-state lawmakers and farm groups are disgruntled regarding what they believe to be a very passive approach by the Biden administration regarding efforts to boost farm commodity exports. USDA’s estimate of the ag trade deficit this fiscal year is $30.5 billion. Biden administration officials have frequently said the reasons for the deficit is a strong U.S. dollar, imports of horticultural products unavailable in the United States, and a robust U.S. economy.

— USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack today talks with the North American Agricultural Journalists annual meeting. But his main appearance this week comes Tuesday before the Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee with the usual round of topics likely addressed including food stamp funding, farm income, a new farm bill, agricultural trade and animal diseases.

— Congressional issues of note include aid to Ukraine and Israel and continued work on a FISA bill — the Senate needs to pass the House’s FISA reauthorization bill by Friday’s deadline. Meanwhile, GOP leaders have scheduled a House Republican Conference meeting for late this afternoon to discuss “Iran’s recent attack on Israel and defense supplemental spending.”

— Sen. Manchin teams with GOP to oppose Biden's stricter vehicle emission standards. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is joining Senate Republicans in targeting the Biden administration’s rule imposing stricter tailpipe emission standards for new vehicles. The Senate must vote by Friday on a bill (S 4072) to block the rule under an agreement between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the bill’s sponsors.

Hearings & Other Events This Week

Monday, April 15

President Joe Biden meets with Czechia Prime Minister Petr Fiala and separately meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia'a Al-Sudani at the White House.
Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorrie Logan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.
India elections begin. India elections begin and run through June 1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term.
IMF/World Bank spring meetings. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank hold their spring meeting in Washington, DC this week. Several events will be on tap including remarks from IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
North American Agricultural Journalists annual meeting, through Tuesday, Washington, DC.

Tuesday, April 16

Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivers remarks on Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty.
IMF/World Bank meetings. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group 2024 Spring Meeting, including a press briefing on "World Economic Outlook" and on the "Global Financial Stability Report." The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) and the IMF hold a virtual conference on "Rethinking Economic Policy: Steering Structural Change."
Biden trade policy. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on "The Biden Administration's 2024 Trade Policy Agenda." U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: USDA. Senate Appropriations Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "A Review of the President's FY 2025 Budget Request for USDA." USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: HHS. Senate Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "A Review of the President's FY 2025 Budget Request for the Department of Health and Human Services." HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: DOE. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on "The President's Budget Request for the US Department of Energy FY 2025." Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: VA. House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee (hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Department of Veterans Affairs." Veterans Affairs Secretary Dennis McDonough testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Homeland Security. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on "A Review of the FY 2025 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security." Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: DOJ. House Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Department of Justice." Attorney General Merrick Garland testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: U.S. Forest Service. House Appropriations Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the US Forest Service." Forest Service Chief Randy Moore testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: FEMA. House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Federal Emergency Management Agency." FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: TSA. House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Transportation Security Administration." TSA Administrator David Pekoske testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: IRS. Senate Finance Committee hearing on "The President's FY 2025 IRS Budget and the IRS 2024 Filing Season." IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel testifies.
WTO outlook. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on "The Renewal of the Global Trading System: The World Trade Organization (WTO) at 30."
U.S. elections and federal debt. Brookings Institution discussion on "What's at stake in the 2024 election: Federal debt and the implications for government spending and programs."
China and fentanyl. House Select China Competition Committee hearing on "The CCP's Role in the Fentanyl Crisis."
U.S./India relations. George Washington University (Elliott School of International Affairs conference on India's Economic Development and U.S./India Economic Relations with the theme "Making India an Advanced Economy by 2047."
Small Business Administration programs. House Small Business Economic Growth, Tax and Capital Access Subcommittee hearing on "Exploring SBA Programs: Reviewing the SBIC (Small Business Investment Company) and SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) Programs' Impact on Small Businesses."
Postal Service oversight. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on "Oversight of the United States Postal Service." Postmaster General and CEO Lousi DeJoy testifies.
Border security. House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing on "How the Border Crisis Impacts Public Safety."
Ransomware. House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on "Held for Ransom: How Ransomware Endangers Our Financial System."
IMF/World Bank meeting preview. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on "Previewing the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings."
War in Ukraine. Wilson Center's Global Europe Program and the Royal United Services Institute virtual discussion on a new report, "Mass Precision Strike: Designing UAV Complexes for Land Forces," focusing on lessons from the war in Ukraine.
AI in transportation. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee hearing on "Artificial Intelligence in Transportation."
Black Sea situation. Hudson Institute discussion on "The Battle for the Black Sea Is Not Over."
Ocean CO2 removal. Environmental and Energy Study Institute and the World Resources Institute briefing on "Demystifying Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal."
Congress and foreign policy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on "Congress' Role in Foreign Policy."
CFPB oversight. House Financial Services Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee hearing on "Agency Audit: Reviewing CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) Financial Reporting & Transparency."
Covid 19. House Judiciary Constitution and Limited Government Subcommittee of House Judiciary Committee hearing on "Liberty, Tyranny, and Accountability: Covid-19 and the Constitution."
Investing in Brazil. U.S. Chamber of Commerce discussion on "Investing in Latin America and Brazil," focusing on "Brazil's tax reform, and investment opportunities on ecological transition in Brazil and across Latin America."
Climate and agriculture. Wilson Center's China Environment Forum and the U.S. Heartland China Association virtual discussion on "Green Alliances: Cultivating U.S. and Chinese Climate Leadership," focusing on agriculture.

Wednesday, April 17

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a fireside chat the Institute for International Finance Global Outlook Forum. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester scheduled to speak. The Federal Reserve holds a International Research Forum on Monetary Policy.
IMF/World Bank meetings. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group hold their 2024 Spring Meeting. Peterson Institute for International Economics and IMF hold a virtual conference on "Rethinking Economic Policy: Steering Structural Change."
Biden trade policy. Senate Finance Committee hearing on "The President's 2024 Trade Policy Agenda." U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Interior. House Appropriations Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Department of the Interior." Interior Secretary Deb Haaland testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Defense. House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Department of Defense." Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Labor. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Department of Labor." Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: HHS. House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on "FY 2025 Department of Health and Human Services Budget."
FY 2025 Budget: DOJ. Senate Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "A Review of the President's FY2025 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Justice." Attorney General Merrick Garland testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Customs and Border Protection. House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for Immigration and Customs Enforcement." Acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement Director Patrick Lechleitner testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. House Appropriations Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Request for the Army Corps of Engineers (Civil Works) and the Bureau of Reclamation."
Food is medicine. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Primary Health and Retirement Security Subcommittee hearing on "Feeding a Healthier America: Current Efforts and Potential Opportunities for Food is Medicine."
Biden, Trump policies. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on "Biden 2.0-Trump 2.0: What to Expect in a Second Term."
Ukraine situation. U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds a U.S./Ukraine Partnership Forum. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo deliver remarks.
Energy rail transportation. Surface Transportation Board meeting of the Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee to discuss rail service, infrastructure planning and development and effective coordination among suppliers, rail carriers, and users of energy resources.
World economy. Semafor holds its 2024 World Economy Summit, with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo; Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo; German Finance Minister Christian Lindner; and Valdis Dombrovskis, executive vice president of the European Commission among those to speak.
Commuter rail challenges. House Transportation and Infrastructure Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee hearing on "Getting to Work: Examining Challenges and Solutions in the Commuter Rail Industry."
China political warfare. House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing on "Defending America from the Chinese Communist Party's Political Warfare, Part I."
Boeing report. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on "FAA Organization Designation Authorization (DOA) Expert Panel Report" on Boeing safety culture.
International finance. Center for Global Development discussion with European Investment Bank President Nadia Calvino on reforming the international financial architecture.
'Member Day' House Appropriations subcommittee. House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on "Member/Public Witness Day."
Consumer preferences. National Association for Business Economics virtual discussion on "Polarized Preferences: The Intersection of Politics and Consumer Behavior in the Modern Marketplace."
Boeing safety issues. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Investigations Subcommittee hearing on "Examining Boeing's Broken Safety Culture: First Hand Accounts."
Russia/Iran cooperation. House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Subcommittee hearing on "The Despotic Duo: Russo-Iranian Cooperation and Threats to U.S. Interests."
2024 election threats. Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on "An Update on Threats to 2024 Elections."
Clean energy and manufacturing. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on "The Role of Clean Energy in the Future of American Manufacturing."
Congressional Budget Act. Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion on "Fifty Years of the Congressional Budget Act."

Thursday, April 18

Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers opening remarks at the New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.
IMF/World Bank meeting. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group hold their 2024 Spring Meeting. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on "Global Policy Agenda" with another press briefing on the G20.
FY 2025 Budget: FDA. House Appropriations Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on "FY 2025 Budget Request for the Food and Drug Administration." FDA Commissioner Robert Califf testifies.
FY 2025 Budget: Homeland Security. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on "The FY 2025 DHS Budget: Resources and Authorities Requested to Protect and Secure the Homeland."
Biden administration priorities. Economic Club of Washington, D.C. discussion with White House Chief of Staff Jeffrey Zients on "priorities of the Biden-Harris administration.
Climate and global development. Center for Strategic and International Studies 2024 Global Development Forum focusing in part on global development and climate/energy issues.
5G. PunchBowl News and CTIA — The Wireless Association discussion on "5G and America's Competitiveness."
Global economy. Semafor 2024 World Economy Summit. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su; Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.); Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.); Lael Brainard, director of the White House National Economic Council; New York Fed President John Williams are among those speaking.
Offshore energy. House Natural Resources Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee hearing on "Assessing Solutions to Secure America's Offshore Energy Future."
LNG export approval pause. House Oversight and Accountability Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee hearing on "Oversight of the Biden Administration's Pause on Liquified Natural Gas Exports."
South Korean elections. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on "Unpacking the 2024 South Korean Elections."
Prevailing federal wages. Office of Personnel Management virtual meeting of the Federal Prevailing Rate Advisory Committee to discuss the determination of prevailing wage rates for the Federal Wage System.
Cybersecurity. United States Energy Association virtual discussion on "Leveraging Procurement for Cybersecurity Resilience."
Housing regulator oversight. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on "Oversight of Federal Housing Regulators."
Satellite issues. Federal Communications Commission open meeting on "Satellite Spectrum Coordination."
Border security. Wilson Center's Mexico Institute virtual discussion on "Border Policy, Organized Crime, and Migration Between Mexico and the U.S."
Small business regulatory hurdles. National Association for Business Economics virtual discussion on "Small Business Regulatory Hurdles."
AI and fraud risks. American Bankers Association virtual news conference on "Efforts to Combat Artificial Intelligence (AI) Cybersecurity and Fraud Risks."

Friday, April 19

Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.
IMF/World Bank meeting. Final day of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group Spring Meeting
China activities. The U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on "The National Security Implications of the Economic Relationship between the United States and the People's Republic of China" with a focus on China's efforts in the Middle East.
Monetary policy, the pandemic and inflation. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on "Monetary policy responses to the post-pandemic inflation: What happened, and lessons learned."
U.S.-Singapore FTA environment chapter. State Department virtual meeting of the Implementation of the United States-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Environment Chapter and Biennial Review Under the United States-Singapore Memorandum of Intent on Environmental Cooperation to review implementation of FTA Chapter 18.
Future of the financial system. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on "A Vision of the Future Financial System."
Bank of Japan monetary policy changes. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on "The Recent Changes in the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Framework."

Economic Reports and Events for the Week

Investors will be focusing on the March retail sales report scheduled for Monday and a reading on U.S. industrial production on Tuesday. Also on the agenda will be housing starts and existing home sales data.

Of note: The communication blackout period around the next FOMC meeting will go into effect at midnight on Saturday, April 21 and last through midnight on Thursday, May 2. The coming week will be the last opportunity for Fed policymakers to speak in public about their respective outlooks for monetary policy.

Monday, April 15

Retail Sales: March sales are expected to rise 0.4% versus February's nearly as expected and very solid gain of 0.6%. February's ex-auto sales rose 0.3% with March expected at plus 0.5%; March ex-auto ex-gas are expected at an 0.3% gain.
Empire State Manufacturing is expected to bounce back in April to minus 5.1 following March's nearly 13-point fall to minus 20.9. This index has been volatile this year.
Business Inventories in February are expected to rise 0.4% following no change in January when a build for retailers was offset by draws for manufacturers and wholesalers.
Housing Market Index: Analysts expect April's housing market index to hold onto March's higher-than-expected 51 in March.
Federal Reserve. Dallas Fed President Lorrie Logan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly scheduled to speak.

Tuesday, April 2

Housing Starts in March are expected to fall back to a 1.480 million annual rate versus February's 1.521 million rate that was much higher than expected but followed a much lower-than-expected 1.374 million in January. Permits, at 1.518 million in February, are expected to hold steady at 1.541 million.
Industrial Production: After edging 0.1% higher in February, industrial production is expected to rebound 0.4% in March. Manufacturing output is expected to rise an additional 0.3% after jumping 0.8%. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 78.5 percent versus February's 78.3 percent.
Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell participates in a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivers remarks on Monetary Policy During Periods of Uncertainty.

Wednesday, April 3

MBA Mortgage Applications
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Fed Beige Book : While the Beige Book is unlikely to paint a picture of a robust economy, the past two reports have pointed to firming in conditions that should be sustained in the period from late February through early April.
Treasury International Capital
Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a fireside chat the Institute for International Finance Global Outlook Forum. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester scheduled to speak. The Federal Reserve holds a International Research Forum on Monetary Policy.

Thursday, April 4

Jobless Claims have been steady and low and the April 13 week is expected to follow suit. A 215,000 increase is the consensus versus the prior week's 211,000.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing: No change at zero is expected for the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in April. March's 3.2 did show some growth and, for a second report in a row, was better than expected.
Leading Indicators: Edging 0.1% higher in February, the index of leading economic indicators emerged from two years unbroken decline. No change is the expectation for March.
Existing Home Sales: After February's jump from January's 3.92 million annualized rate to 4.38 million which the National Association of Realtors said reflected pent-up demand, existing home sales in March are expected to fall back to 4.18 million.
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivers opening remarks at the New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic scheduled to speak.

Friday, April 5

Import & Export Prices
Consumer Sentiment
Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee scheduled to speak.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Ag focus will be on a sugar conference in Geneva and a grains event in Kyiv during the week.

In the energy sector, China will release data on oil and gas output and trading during the week.

Monday, April 15

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Cotton and Wool Outlook Tables
Dairy Monthly Tables
Oil Crops Outlook
Feed Outlook
Wheat Outlook
Rice Outlook
Crop Progress
Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly data on stockpiles, exports and production
Malaysian palm oil export data for April 1-15