PF Report Reaction: USDA's report data fails to provide bullish spark
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading near unchanged, soybeans were 6 to 7 cents lower, wheat futures were 5 to 7 cents lower and cotton was 65 to 85 points lower.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, wheat futures are 6 to 8 cents lower and cotton is 80 to 120 points lower.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.122 billion bu. for 2023-24, down from 2.172 billion bu. in March
— compares to 1.360 billion bu. in 2022-23
Beans: 340 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 315 million bu. in March
— compares to 264 million bu. in 2022-23
Wheat: 698 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 673 million bu. in March
— compares to 570 million bu. in 2022-23
Cotton: 2.5 million bales for 2023-24, unchanged from 2.5 million bales in March
— compares to 4.25 million bales in 2022-23
USDA cut 50 million bu. from 2023-24 corn carryover from last month to 2.122 billion bu., which was 20 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply-side of the balance sheet. On the demand-side, USDA increased feed & residual use 25 million bu. (to 5.7 billion bu.), and food, seed & industrial use 25 million bu. (to 6.805 billion bu. with all the increase going to corn-for-ethanol production, which now stands at 5.4 billion bushels). Exports were unchanged from March at 2.1 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $4.70, down a nickel from last month.
USDA raised soybean carryover 25 million bu. from last month to 340 million bu., which was 23 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA trimmed total supplies 5 million bu. to reflect a 5-million-bu. drop in estimated bean imports to 25 million bushels. On the demand side, USDA left bean crush unchanged from last month at 2.3 billion bushels. Bean exports are now projected at 1.7 billion bu., down 20 million bu. from last month. Seed use was trimmed 2 million bu. (now at 100 million bu.) and residual use was cut 9 million bu. (to 13 million bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2023-24 at $12.55, down a dime from last month.
Wheat carryover at 698 million bu. was raised 25 million bu. from last month and 8 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA trimmed total supplies 5 million bu. to reflect a 5-million-bu. drop in wheat imports to 140 million bushels. On the demand side of the wheat balance sheet, USDA left exports at 710 million bu. and food use at 960 million bu. but cut 30 million bu. from feed & residual use (to 90 million bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2023-24 at $7.10, down a nickel from last month.
USDA made no changes from last month to the supply- or demand-side of the balance sheet for cotton. Projected ending stocks are unchanged at 2.5 million bales. USDA lowered its 2023-24 national average on-farm cash price projection by a penny to 76 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 318.28 MMT for 2023-24, down from 319.63 MMT in March
— compares to 302.19 MMT in 2022-23
Beans: 114.22 MMT for 2023-24, down from 114.27 MMT in March
— compares to 101.31 MMT for 2022-23
Wheat: 258.27 MMT for 2023-24, down from 258.83 MMT in March
— compares to 271.0 MMT in 2022-23
Cotton: 83.08 million bales for 2023-24, down from 83.34 million bales in March
— compares to 82.61 million bales in 2022-23
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in March
— compares to 25.0 MMT in 2022-23
Brazil beans: 155.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 155.0 MMT in March
— compares to 162.0 MMT in 2022-23
Argentina wheat: 15.9 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.9 MMT in March
— compares to 12.55 MMT in 2022-23
Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 26.0 MMT for March
— compares to 40.55 MMT in 2022-23
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in March
— compares to 137.72 MMT in 2022-23
Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in March
— compares to 34.34 MMT in 2022-23
EU wheat: 134.15 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 133.65 MMT in March
— compares to 134.29 MMT in 2022-23
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in March
— compares to 92.0 MMT in 2022-23
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.4 MMT in March
— compares to 21.5 MMT in 2022-23
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in March
— compares to 277.2 MMT in 2022-23
Argentina corn: 55.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 56.0 MMT in March
— compares to 36.0 MMT in 2022-23
Brazil corn: 124.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 124.0 MMT in March
— compares to 137.0 MMT in 2022-23
Ukraine corn: 29.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 29.5 MMT for March
— compares to 27.0 MMT in 2022-23
South Africa corn: 14.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.5 MMT in March
— compares to 17.1 MMT in 2022-23
China cotton: 27.5 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in March
— compares to 30.7 million bales in 2022-23
