Market Snapshot | April 11, 2024

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midmorning.

• Trade in corn futures is light and choppy ahead of USDA’s Supply & Demand Report.
• USDA is expected to make relatively modest changes to its domestic usage forecasts in the report at 11:00 a.m. CT. On average analysts expect corn ending stocks will drop 70 million bu. for corn to 2.102 billion bu.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 325,500 MT of corn during the week ended April 4, a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 66% from the previous week, 72% from the four-week average and were notably below pre-report expectations of 750,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
• The Rosario Grains Exchange slashed its Argentine corn crop forecast by 6.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT, citing “unprecedented” damage from spiroplasma disease carried by leafhoppers. The exchange noted, “This is the first time since estimates have been made that such significant damage has been seen from a non-climatic factor.
• Brazilian crop agency Conab lowered its Brazilian corn crop estimate to 110.964 MMT, down roughly 1.8 MMT from its previous estimate. The updated estimate represents a 16% decline from year-ago.
• Chinese importers won’t take delivery of four or five cargoes of Ukrainian corn previously booked for delivery between April and June, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The sources noted more shipments could be canceled.
• May corn futures have tested resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4.35 1/4 and support at the 40-day moving average of $4.32 1/2.

Soybean futures are mostly 6 to 7 cents lower, while soymeal is around $1.00 higher. May soyoil nearly 130 points lower.

• Nearby soybeans are facing pressure for the fourth straight session, with sharp losses in soyoil providing pressure.
• Analysts anticipate USDA will show soybean ending stocks up 2 million bu. to 317 million bu. in this morning’s report.
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 305,300 MT during the week ended April 4, which were up 57% from the previous week but down 3% from the four-week average. Net sales were within pre-report expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
• Conab trimmed its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 336,000 MT to 146.522 MMT.
• May soybeans have dropped below initial support at $11.60 1/4, while initial resistance stands at $11.69 1/2.

Wheat futures are mostly 5 to 8 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are lower amid continued U.S. dollar strength.  
• USDA is expected to report wheat ending stocks up 17 million bu. to 690 million bu. in today’s Supply & Demand Report.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 80,700 MT for 2023-24 and 274,400 MT for 2024-25. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from (100,000) MT to 250,000 MT for 2023-24 and 100,000 to 300,000 MT for 2024-25.
• Strategie Grains raised its EU wheat production forecast by 200,000 MT to 121.8 MMT, due to favorable conditions in Spain, though that would still be down 4.1 MMT (3.3%) from last year. Heavy rains have hampered wheat crops in other areas of Europe.
• May SRW wheat futures are facing resistance at the 40- and 10-day moving average of $5.56 1/2 $5.57 3/4, while initial support lies at the 20-day moving average of $5.51 1/4.

Live cattle are mildly weaker, while feeders are moderately lower.  

• Nearby live cattle are extending Wednesday’s losses as technical pressure and wholesale weakness weighs on prices.
• Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV) was detected in a dairy herd in North Carolina. This is the 21^st case of BIAV and North Carolina is the seventh state with an outbreak of the virus.
• Cash cattle trade remains limited as packers attempt to manage negative margins by limiting slaughter runs.
• Wholesale beef values tumbled Wednesday, with Choice falling $3.86 to $298.23, while Select dropped $3.88 to $296.02. Movement totaled 129 loads.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 13,600 MT for 2024, down 27% from the previous week but up 2% from the four-week average.
• June live cattle are trading narrowly between support at $171.59, which is backed by last week’s low of $171.40, and resistance at $173.43.

Lean hog futures are mostly firmer at midsession.

• April hogs are facing mild profit-taking, while deferred futures are bouncing back from yesterday’s key bearish reversals.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 90 cents to $88.78 as of April 9.
• The pork cutout value slipped 46 cents Wednesday to $100.25, led lower by an $8 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 253.2 loads.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 47,400 MT for 2024, up 65% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average.
• June lean hogs are trading within Wednesday’s lower range, with support at the 10-day moving average of $105.45, while initial resistance stands at $106.68.