Market Snapshot | April 9, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 3 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower amid broad selling across the grain and soy complexes.
• USDA reported 3% of the corn crop was planted as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week and one point ahead of the five-year average.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentina corn crop estimate by 2 MMT to 53 MMT, noting heavy insect and disease pressure. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 112 MMT.
• The Mato Grosso Institute of Agriculture Economics (IMEA) estimates the state’s corn production at 45.29 MMT this year, with 11.65 MMT (25.7%) expected to be utilized for ethanol production. Mato Grosso’s corn exports are projected to fall 18.2% from last year to 24.39 MMT, including 4.54 MMT to other Brazilian states.
• World Weather Inc. indicates by the middle of next week, soil moisture should be favorable for most safrinha corn areas of Brazil, but a full restoration of soil moisture isn’t likely in portions of Paraguay, western Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul where timely rain will be needed by early May.
• May corn futures have extended below the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $4.33 1/4 and $4.33, with support at $4.32 1/4 being tested. Initial resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $4.35 3/4.

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, while soymeal is around $1.00 lower. May soyoil around 35 points lower.

• Nearby soybeans are extending Monday’s losses.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 124,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2023-24.
• Cordonnier left his Argentine and Brazilian soybean production estimates unchanged at 51 MMT and 145 MMT, respectively. Conab will update its official Brazilian crop estimates Thursday morning.
• Anec forecasts Brazil’s soybean exports will reach 12.73 MMT in April, versus a previous estimate of 10.65 MMT. Soymeal exports are seen reaching 2.45 MMT in April, versus 2.31 MMT previously forecast.
• May soybeans have dropped below the 40-day moving average of $11.77, with support now at $11.72 1/4. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $11.84 1/2.  

SRW wheat is a nickel to 7 cents lower, while HRW is mostly 9 to 10 cents lower. HRS is 6 to 9 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are facing pressure for the second straight session amid broad-based selling.
• USDA rated 56% of the winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from the previous week. When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop slid 0.1 point to 345.3, while the SRW crop improved 2.3 points to 373.8. Click here for details.
• One of Russia’s largest grain exporters RIF has halted the handling of agricultural goods at an Azov terminal, its owner told Reuters earlier today, amid a dispute with authorities that has slowed grain exports. The river terminal, which leads to the Azov Sea, handles around 15,000 MT of grains per day, or some 4 MMT annually.
• May SRW wheat futures tested support at the 40- and 10-day moving averages of $5.58 1/2 and $5.55 3/4 but have moved back above these levels. Initial resistance stands at $5.66 1/4.

Live cattle are moderately higher, while feeders are posting heavier gains.  

• Nearby live cattle are higher for a second straight day amid corrective buying in the wake of recent heavy selling.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price fell $2.50 from the previous week to $185.73.
• Wholesale beef prices surged Monday, with Choice rising $4.90 to $302.07, while Select firmed $5.57 to $300.27, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $1.80. Movement was light at only 77 loads.
• June live cattle tested resistance at $174.94, though it remains intact. Initial support lies at $173.02. 

Lean hog futures are mostly firmer at midsession.

• April lean hog futures are posting modest gains but have retreated from earlier highs.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 74 cents to $87.05 as of April 5.
• The pork cutout value rose $2.58 Monday to $100.33, led higher by an $11 gain in primal bellies. The cutout topped $100.00 for the first time since September of last year.
• June lean hogs marked a fresh contract high at $109.175 in early trade, though resistance at $109.36 limited a move higher. Initial support lies at $106.92.