PF Report Reaction: Bullish USDA data for corn
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading near unchanged, soybeans were 12 to 13 cents lower, wheat futures were 1 to 5 cents higher and cotton was modestly firmer.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around 15 cents higher, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, winter wheat markets are 10 to 15 cents higher, spring wheat is 4 to 6 cents higher and cotton is around 50 points higher.
Prospective Plantings Report
Corn: 90.036 mil. acres; trade expected 91.776 mil. acres
— compares to 94.641 mil. acres in 2023
Soybeans: 86.510 mil. acres; traders expected 86.530 mil. acres
— compares to 83.600 mil. acres in 2023
All wheat: 47.498 mil. acres; traders expected 47.330 mil. acres
— compares to 49.575 mil. acres in 2023
Other spring wheat: 11.335 mil. acres; traders expected 10.891 mil. acres
— compares to 11.200 mil. acres in 2023
Durum: 2.028 mil. acres; traders expected 1.652 mil. acres
— compares to 1.676 mil. acres in 2023
Cotton: 10.673 mil. acres; traders expected 10.906 mil. acres
— compares to 10.230 mil. acres in 2023
Corn planting intentions at 90.036 million acres would be down 4.6 million acres (4.9%) from last year and 1.7 million acres less than traders expected.
USDA estimates lower corn plantings in each of the 12 top production states. Compared with last year, corn plantings are expected to decline 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 10.9 million acres), 350,000 acres in Indiana (5.1 million acres), 300,000 acres in Iowa (12.8 million acres), 50,000 acres in Kansas (5.7 million acres), 150,000 acres in Michigan (2.25 million acres), 700,000 acres in Minnesota (7.9 million acres), 350,000 acres in Missouri (3.5 million acres), 100,000 acres in Nebraska (9.85 million acres), 250,000 acres in North Dakota (3.8 million acres), 300,000 acres in Ohio (3.3 million acres), 300,000 acres in South Dakota (6.0 million acres) and 200,000 acres in Wisconsin (3.8 million acres).
USDA estimates soybean acres will rise 2.9 million acres from last year to 86.510 million acres, which virtually matched pre-report expectations.
Compared to year-ago, soybean plantings are expected to rise 120,000 acres in Arkansas (to 3.1 million acres), 150,000 acres in Illinois (10.5 million acres), 250,000 acres in Indiana (10.5 million acres), 250,000 acres in Iowa (10.2 million acres), 160,000 acres in Michigan (2.2 million acres), 150,000 acres in Minnesota (7.5 million acres), 400,000 acres in Missouri (6.0 million acres), 50,000 acres in Nebraska (5.3 million acres), 700,000 acres in North Dakota (6.9 million acres), 250,000 acres in Ohio (5.0 million acres), 100,000 acres in South Dakota (5.2 million acres) and 90,000 acres in Wisconsin (2.2 million acres). The only state of the top 13 producers expected to reduce soybean acres is Kansas (down 180,000 acres to 4.25 million acres.
All wheat acres at 47.498 million acres would be down 2.1 million acres from last year but 168,000 acres more than traders expected. Expected plantings included 34.135 million acres of winter wheat, 11.335 million acres of other spring wheat and 2.028 million acres of durum. Other spring wheat acres are expected to rise 135,000 acres from last year, while durum plantings are expected to jump 352,000 acres.
USDA estimates cotton plantings will increase 443,000 acres to 10.673 million acres, which was 233,000 acres less than traders expected. Plantings are expected to decline 39,000 acres in Texas (5.54 million acres) and 10,000 acres in Georgia (1.1 million acres). Increases were noted in most other states.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 8.347 billion bu.; traders expected 8.427 billion bu.
— compares to 12.169 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 7.396 bil. bu. on March 1, 2023
Soybeans: 1.845 billion bu.; traders expected 1.828 billion bu.
— compares to 3.000 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.687 bil. bu. on March 1, 2023
Wheat: 1,087 billion bu.; traders expected 1.044 billion bu.
— compares to 1.410 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 941 mil. bu. on March 1, 2023
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 were up 951 million bu. from year-ago but 80 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Corn stored on-farm on March 1 totaled 5.079 billion bu., up 974 million bu. (23.7%) from year-ago. Corn stored off-farm at 3.268 billion bu. was down 23 million bu. (0.7%) from year-ago. USDA says, “The December 2023 – February 2024 indicated disappearance is 3.82 billion bu., compared with 3.42 billion bu. during the same period last year.”
Soybean stocks in all positions on March 1 were up 158 million bu. from year-ago and 17 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Beans stored on-farm on March 1 totaled 933 million bu., up 183.5 million bu. (24.5%) from year-ago. Soybeans stored off-farm at 912.1 million bu. was down 25 million bu. (2.7%) from year-ago. USDA says, “Indicated disappearance for the December 2023 – February 2024 quarter totaled 1.16 billion bu., down 13% from the same period a year earlier.”
Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 were up 146 million bu. from year-ago and 43 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Wheat stored on-farm on March 1 totaled 271.9 million bu, up 44.4 million bu. (19.5%) from year-ago. Wheat stored off-farm on March 1 totaled 815.5 million bu. was up 101.8 million bu. (14.3%) from year-ago. USDA says, “The December 2023 – February 2024 indicated disappearance is 334 million bu., 10% below the same period a year earlier.”
