Market Snapshot | March 28, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are mildly favoring the upside ahead of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports.
• Analysts expect corn planting intentions of 91.776 million acres and March 1 stocks of 8.427 billion bu. in this morning’s reports.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 1.21 MMT for the week ended March 21, up 2% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. Sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range from 800,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
• World Weather Inc. notes Brazil’s driest areas in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraguay and western and northern Parana will get some timely rain Sunday through Tuesday that will temporarily improve topsoil moisture, though subsoil moisture changes are not likely and drier biased weather will be quick to resume later next week and continue into the second week of April.
• May corn bounced after a dip below Wednesday’s low. Resistance is at $4.30 1/2, while support at the session low of $4.26 is backed by $4.24 1/2.

Soybean futures are mostly 9 to 11 cents lower, while soymeal is nearly $5.00 lower. May soyoil is about 20 points lower.

• Soybeans have dropped to a more than two-week low on spillover from soymeal.
• Analysts expect 86.35 million soybean acres and March 1 stocks of 1.828 billion bu. in today’s Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports.
• USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 263,900 MT, down 47% from the previous week and 26% from the four-week average. Sales for the week missed the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
• May soybeans are pivoting around the 20-day moving average of $11.84 1/4. Support lies at the 40-day moving average of $11.80 1/2. The 10-day moving average at $11.96 1/2 is initial resistance, which is backed by psychological resistance at $12.00.

Wheat futures are 1 to 4 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are supported by mild corrective buying in pre-report trade.   
• Analysts expect USDA to report planting intentions of 10.891 million acres of other spring wheat and 1.652 million acres of durum in today’s Prospective Plantings Report. March 1 wheat stocks are expected at 1.044 billion bushels.
• USDA reported weekly wheat sales of 339,600 MT, down noticeably from the previous week but up noticeably from the four-week average. Net sales were above the pre-report range of (100,000) to 300,000 MT.
• May HRW wheat are pivoting around the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $5.79 1/2, while initial support lies at $5.73 1/4.

Live cattle are posting mild to moderate gains at midsession, while feeders are mixed.

• Nearby live cattle are higher amid corrective gains in the wake of recent heavy selling.
• Cash cattle trade remains light, though additional negotiations have brought the cash average to $185.47 so far this week, sharply lower than last week’s record.
• Wholesale beef prices sank Wednesday, with Choice dropping $2.51 to $308.58, while Select fell $1.83 to $298.43. Choice beef has dropped $5.15 since March 21, signaling a short-term top is in place.
• USDA reported net beef sales of 12,700 MT for 2024, which were up 15% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average.
• April live cattle are being limited by resistance at $184.47, which is backed by the 50-day moving average of $185.12. Initial support lies at $182.34.

Lean hog futures are mixed at midsession.

• April hogs are modestly higher on support from firming cash prices.
• Analysts expect this afternoon’s Hogs & Pigs Report to show the U.S. hog herd was virtually the same size as year-ago at 74.136 million head as of March 1. The breeding herd is expected to be down 3.5%, while market hog inventory is anticipated to be up 0.3% from last year. The winter pig crop is expected to be up 1.4% amid a 3.4% jump in pigs per litter. Spring and summer farrowing intentions are expected to fall 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
• The CME lean hog index rose 56 cents to $84.25 as of March 26, marking the biggest daily gain since Feb. 21 and the highest level since Oct. 3, 2023.
• The pork cutout value dropped $1.27 Wednesday to $94.06 amid a decline in all cuts aside from a mild gain in primal pork bellies. Movement totaled 230.1 loads.
• USDA reported net pork sales of 55,300 MT for 2024, a marketing-year high. Sales rose 64% from the previous week and 74% from the four-week average.
• April lean hogs continue to face initial support at the 10-day moving average of $85.72, while initial resistance remains around $86.44.