Lots of Report Data Coming Friday… Find Out What the Market Expects

Posted on 02/06/2019 5:36 AM

The tables below lay out the pre-report expectations, based on a Reuters survey of analysts (Bloomberg for cotton) for a bevy of USDA reports that were held up by the government shutdown. We’ll have post-report coverage online shortly after their 11:00 a.m. CT release and in Evening Report on Friday.

Expectations for 2018
U.S. Production

Corn

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

14.532

177.9

Range

14.343-14.760

176.7-178.9

USDA November

14.626

178.9

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.569

51.8

Range

4.490-4.620

51.0-52.4

USDA November

4.600

52.1

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.*

18.43

NA

Range*

18.10-18.80

NA

USDA December

18.588

860

 

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.

1.708

Range

1.621-1.787

USDA December

1.781

 

Soybeans – million bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.

926

Range

800-1,015

USDA December

955

 

Wheat – million bushels

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.

989

Range

950-1,028

USDA December

974

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.*

 

Range

 

USDA December

4.4

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg News.

 

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.

307.06

Range

305.00-308.94

USDA December

308.80

 

Soybeans – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.

112.67

Range

109.00-115.10

USDA December

115.33

 

Wheat – MMT

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est.

268.09

Range

266.00-269.70

USDA December

268.10

 

Cotton – million bales

Marketing year

2018-19

Average est. *

4.26

Range*

4.10-6.00

USDA December

4.40

*Based on the results of a survey by Bloomberg news.

 

 

Brazilian Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

116.99

Range

115.00-119.00

USDA December

122.00

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

93.41

Range

91.00-95.50

USDA December

94.50

 

Argentine
Production

Soybeans – MMT

Average est.

55.14

Range

54.00-56.00

USDA December

55.50

 

Corn – MMT

Average est.

43.09

Range

41.50-45.00

USDA December

42.50

 

Expectations for
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2018

12.092

Range

11.940-12.400

USDA Sept. 1, 2018

2.140

USDA Dec. 1, 2017

12.567

 

Soybeans – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2018

3.743

Range

3.414-3.872

USDA Sept. 1, 2018

0.438

USDA Dec. 1, 2017

3.161

 

Wheat – billion bu.

Average est. for Dec. 1, 2018

1.957

Range

1.846-2.003

USDA Sept. 1, 2018

2.379

USDA Dec. 1, 2017

1.873

 


 

Expectations for
Winter Wheat Seedings

 

All winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

32.128

Range

31.500-33.300

USDA final 2018

32.535

 

HRW wheat – million acres

Average est.

22.579

Range

21.925-23.620

USDA final 2018

22.923

 

SRW wheat – million acres

Average est.

5.963

Range

5.643-6.200

USDA final 2018

6.076

 

White winter wheat – million acres

Average est.

3.488

Range

3.211-3.700

USDA final 2018

3.536

Add new comment