Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Nitrogen Advice Updated

Posted on 01/24/2019 1:44 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed but softer overall.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index fell 0.80 points to 607.39. This compares to our 5-year average of 603.82 for this week.

EDITOR'S NOTE: While nitrogen prices have softened this week, we suspect the failure to maintain levels above $600 may lead to a downward correction. But we want to reward the setback by booking 50% of spring and s8ummer nitrogen at current levels. Booking half of your needs will leave room for another purchase later if prices continue lower, but most experts agree that once nitrogen settles on a price, downside potential will be significantly diminished, with plenty of upside risk baked in. Act now to capture this week's lower price by contacting your preferred nitrogen retailer and booking 50% of your spring/summer needs.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Nitrogen prices were mostly lower with only UAN32% posting a weekly price rise.
  • Anhydrous led declines, falling $11.84 by the short ton. Declines here were led by Ohio, Indiana and Iowa.
  • Urea was $3.64 lower on the week with Indiana and Kansas leading the way downward.
  • UAN28% fell $2.92 regionaly with South Dakota and Indiana leading declines.
  • Anhydrous ammonia and our indexed urea price each failed to hold above $600 per short ton. This as UAN solutions have refused to follow NH3 and urea to the 600 level suggesting nitrogen prices may be working on a near-term top with $600 -- both in the raw anhydrous price and in the indexed prices for UAN and urea -- standing as tough regional price resistance.

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were higher on the week with MAP up $10.67 and DAP firming $1.38 on the week.
  • According to MosaicCo, wholesale phosphate prices softened moderately at most U.S. terminals with Central Florida prices steady in the week ended January 18.pandk indices chart
  • As we target $600 per short ton as something of overhead resistance for nitrogen, phosphates have not demonstrated respect for that number. On an indexed basis, both DAP and MAP have held above 600 for quite some time, and there is little indication prices will fall significantly before spring.

Potash

  • Potash declined slightly on the week with eight of twelve states posting lower prices.
  • Wholesale potash prices were mixed according to MosaicCo with Corn Belt prices up slightly and NOLA prices steady.
  • When considered on an indexed basis, potash has held well below that 600 mark, which could suggest pending upside risk for vitamin k. Continued declines in nitrogen -- especially NH3 -- would ease our concern there.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday January 18 at $4.02 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $652.21 per acre -- higher $1.73 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 607.39 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 2.43 points and now stands at -44.82.
Fertilizer
1/9/19
1/14/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$602.99
$606.15
-$11.84
$594.31
Anhydrous
DAP
$525.84
$526.30
+$1.38
$527.68
DAP
MAP
$521.07
$528.09
+$10.67
$538.75
MAP
Potash
$379.42
$380.18
-22 cents
$379.96
Potash
UAN28
$282.02
$281.02
-$2.92
$278.10
UAN28
UAN32
$313.85
$312.68
+$1.62
$314.31
UAN32
Urea
$397.73
$400.94
-$3.64
$397.30
Urea
Composite
606.19
608.19
-0.80
607.39
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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