Market Snapshot | March 19, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher.

• Corn futures are posting corrective gains amid spillover support from wheat, despite U.S. dollar strength is curbing upside.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 112 MMT. He increased his Argentine estimate 1 MMT to 55 MMT, noting recent rains and improved crop conditions.
• China approved 27 genetically modified corn seed varieties, expanding its list of approvals as it aims to increase the development and planting of high-yielding crops.
• May corn continues to closely follow the 10-day moving average of $4.37 3/4. Resistance remains at the 40-day moving average, currently at $4.39 1/2. Initial support lies at $4.33 1/4.

Soybean futures are fractionally to 2 cents higher, while soymeal is $1.00 higher. May soyoil is modestly lower.

• Soybeans are modestly firmer, with strength in corn and wheat spurring light buyer interest after earlier price weakness.
• Cordonnier kept his Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged at 145 MMT but increased his Argentine estimate 1 MMT to 51 MMT.
• Soybean crush levels in Brazil’s main producing state Mato Grosso reached a record high for the month of February, according to the state’s agriculture institute IMEA. February crush levels came in just above 1 MMT, up 20% from January and 19% on the year.
• China’s ag ministry approved 3 genetically modified soybean varieties as the country looks to improve yields and lower costs compared to conventional types of seeds.
• May soybeans are trading narrowly, with support at the 10-day moving average of $11.83 1/4 while initial resistance stands at $11.93 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly a nickel to 7 cents higher, while HRS is 3 to 4 cents higher.

• Wheat futures are posting corrective gains for a second straight day, despite notable U.S. dollar strength.
• The European Union is preparing to levy tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to placate farmers and some member states, the Financial Times (FT) reported citing people familiar with the plans. Reuters reported the tariffs would apply to only grains to be used in the EU and not on grains transported through the bloc to other countries so as not to undermine food security elsewhere.
• World Weather Inc. reports hard freezes occurred this morning in the U.S. Tennessee River Basin, the northern U.S. Delta and lower Midwest, possibly damaging some winter wheat.
• May SRW wheat is trading between the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $5.54 3/4 and $5.39, with additional resistance/support at $5.65 3/4 and $5.31 3/4, respectively.

Live cattle and feeders are posting slight losses at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are trading lower amid a pullback from Monday’s gains.
• Cash cattle averaged $187.47 last week, up $2.35 from the previous week and the second highest ever behind $188.75 for the week ended June 9, 2023. Most cash sources expect steady/firmer prices again this week, though Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report will likely push negotiations late into the week.
• Wholesale beef prices rose Monday, with Choice increasing $1.43 to $313.33, while Select firmed 65 cents to $303.05. Movement totaled 114 loads.
• April live cattle are trading around the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $188.01 and $187.60. Monday’s high of $188.75 is serving as resistance.

Lean hog futures are sharply lower at midsession.

• April hog futures are facing heavy price pressure amid corrective selling despite persisting seasonal gains in the cash market.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 20 cents to $82.54 as of March 15.
• The pork cutout value fell 31 cents to $93.16 Monday, while movement totaled 256.9 loads.
• April lean hogs have dropped below the 20-day moving average of $85.83, with support now at the 10-day moving average of $85.19. Initial resistance stands at Monday’s close of $86.825.