Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | UAN Posts Opportunity

Posted on 01/18/2019 1:27 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed but higher overall.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 2.00 points to 608.18. This compares to our 5-year average of 602.34 for this week.

EDITOR'S NOTE: UAN28 & 32% are each priced below anhydrous and urea when considered on an indexed basis. We believe this is an opportunity to get out in front of upside risk in UAN. Get in touch with your preferred retailer and check your local UAN prices. UAN does not often post a discount to NH3 or urea. With anhydrous ammonia and urea at parity this week, that discount signals significant upside risk. Consider booking at least a portion of your spring/summer UAN at current prices.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Nitrogen gains were led by urea which added $3.21 per short ton on the week.
  • Anhydrous ammonia was right behind, firming $3.16 of its own. When urea is considered on an indexed basis, it and NH3 are priced very near parity. The two moving to the upside casts a bullish tint on our near-term nitrogen price outlook.
  • UAN solutions were lower on the week with 28% off an even dollar and 32% falling $1.16.
  • I spoke with Managing Director Darrell Allman of the Iowa Fertilizer Company in Wever, Iowa in an interview earlier this week. When asked if he could speculate on why nitrogen prices have been on the rise, Allman said he was unsure what specifically was driving the price of nitrogen, but cited nitrogen's status as a commodity which makes it beholden to national and world price trends. Click here to listen to the full interview...pandk indices chart

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices firmed on the week.
  • MAP led gains firming $7.01 per short ton as DAP added 46 cents.
  • Wholesale [phosphate prices reported by MosaicCo in the week ended January 11 were a mixed bag with gains and declines at U.S. terminals offsetting each other.
  • Phosphates remain well overpriced compared to anhydrous ammonia and we feel DAP and MAP may price themselves out of demand if prices continue higher from here.

Potash

  • Potash firmed 76 cents per short ton on the week.
  • MosaicCo reported wholesale potash prices were mixed in the report week and, as with phosphates, gains and declines all but offset each other.
  • Vitamin K is at a discount to anhydrous ammonia when considered on an indexed basis, but as we noted above, the coupling of anhydrous and urea on an upside swing will likely carry more influence over fertilizer prices than the discount potash holds to NH3.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday January 11 at $4.01 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $650.48 per acre -- off $5.19 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 608.19 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 7.20 points and now stands at -42.29.
Fertilizer
1/2/19
1/9/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$593.99
$602.99
+$3.16
$606.15
Anhydrous
DAP
$521.55
$525.84
+46 cents
$526.30
DAP
MAP
$526.29
$521.07
+$7.01
$528.09
MAP
Potash
$377.52
$379.42
+76 cents
$380.18
Potash
UAN28
$277.24
$282.02
-$1.00
$281.02
UAN28
UAN32
$313.66
$313.85
-$1.16
$312.68
UAN32
Urea
$397.98
$397.73
+$3.21
$400.94
Urea
Composite
603.25
606.19
+2.00
608.19
Composite

nci chart

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