Market Snapshot | March 12, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny higher at midsession.

• Corn futures are edging higher amid broad-based gains across the grain and soy complex, despite U.S. dollar strength.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn production estimates unchanged for both Brazil and Argentina at 112 MMT and 54 MMT, respectively.
• Conab lowered its estimate for the Brazilian corn crop by 943,000 MT from last month to 112.8 MMT, which included a 750,000-MT cut to the safrinha crop estimate. USDA estimates the country’s corn crop at 124 MMT.
• May corn is trading above the 40-day moving average of $4.41 3/4 for the second straight day, with additional resistance at $4.49. Initial support lies at $4.35 1/2.

Soybean futures are 10 to 13 cents higher, while soymeal is around $1.50 higher. May soyoil is about 70 points higher.

• The soy complex is higher amid an additional downgrade in Brazil’s soybean production.
• Conab cut the official Brazilian soybean crop estimate 2.5 MMT from last month to 146.9 MMT. USDA forecasts the crop at 155.0 MMT, which was reduced by 1 MMT in last week’s supply and demand update.
• Cordonnier left his South American soybean production estimates unchanged at 145 MMT for Brazil and 50 MMT for Argentina.
• ADM reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday. As part of its quarterly earnings report, ADM said it expects global soybean crush margins to decline this year, likely falling into a range of $35 to $60 per MT.
• May soybeans pushed above the 40-day moving average at $11.90 to the highest level since Feb. 13, with next resistance at the psychological $12.00 mark.  

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents higher.

• SRW wheat is posting corrective gains for the third straight session, while this is the fourth day higher for HRW and HRS contracts, despite a stronger U.S. dollar.
• Ukraine’s 2024 combined grain and oilseed production is likely to shrink to 76.1 MMT from 82.6 MMT last year, Ukrainian grain traders’ union UGA said.
• India’s wheat inventories held in government warehouses dropped to the lowest level since 2017, after two straight years of low crops prompted the state to sell record volumes to boost domestic supplies and lower local prices. Wheat reserves in state stores totaled 9.7 MMT at the start of the month, down from 11.7 MMT in March 2023.
• May SRW has moved above the 10-day moving average of $5.52 for the first time since March 1, with additional resistance at $5.57 1/4. Initial support lies at $5.40 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are notably higher at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are moderately higher but continue to trade sideways.
• Last week’s cash cattle average was up $1.82 from the previous week at $185.12, the highest weekly mark since Oct. 20 of last year. Cash sources are expecting prices to be steady/firmer again this week.
• Choice cutout rose $1.84 Monday to $308.88, while Select gained $1.45 to $298.88, though movement was light at only 77 loads.
• April live cattle continue to consolidate above support at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $187.40 and $187.08. Resistance is at last week’s high of $189.95.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

• April hog futures are trading higher following recent price pressure.
• The CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $81.41 as of March 8, the first daily decline since Feb. 8.
• The pork cutout value rose another $1.40 to $93.51 amid gains in all cuts.
• April lean hogs continue to find support at the 40-day moving average of $83.34, while initial resistance stands at $84.42.