Market Snapshot | March 8, 2024
Corn futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are facing modest selling ahead of USDA’s Supply & Demand Report.
- USDA is expected to make minor adjustments to its U.S. usage forecasts in the Supply & Demand Report at 11:00 a.m. CT, which would lead to slight changes to ending stocks. Analysts expect USDA to project U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.159 billion bu. for corn, which would be down 13 million bu. from February.
- Brazil’s crop areas outside of the west and interior south will see showers and thunderstorms supporting crop needs, states World Weather Inc. However, concern remains over low subsoil moisture reserves in April when the rainy season usually ends.
- May corn futures are trading within Thursday’s upper range, with resistance at the previous session high of $4.38 3/4. Support is at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.29 3/4 and $4.28 1/4, respectively.
Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 10 cents lower, while soymeal is around $2.00 lower. May soyoil is more than 120 points lower.
- Soybeans reached a two-plus week high overnight but have retreated ahead of USDA’s report.
- Analysts expect USDA to project U.S. soybean ending stocks at 319 million bu., which would be up 4 million bu. from February. A greater focus will be on USDA’s changes to South American crop forecasts, especially for Brazil, which will impact global ending stocks.
- Most of Argentina will get waves of rain during the next 10 days with some rainfall expected to be heavy and could induce flooding, notes World Weather. Flooding is most likely in eastern Buenos Aires, Entre Rios and Uruguay.
- May soybeans have dropped below the 20-day moving average of $11.61 3/4, with next support at $11.53 1/4, backed by the 10-day moving average of $11.49 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $11.73 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents higher, while HRS is around 3 cents higher.
- The wheat complex is marking mild gains, despite additional SRW sales cancellations from China, with a plunging U.S. dollar lending support.
- USDA reported SRW sales cancellations from China of 110,000 MT during 2023-24, marking the second straight day of cancellations and bringing the two-day tally to 240,000 MT.
- Analysts expect USDA to peg U.S. wheat ending stocks at 657 million bu., down 1 million bu. from February.
- As of March 4, France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop 68% good or excellent, unchanged from the previous week, though it was the lowest for this date since 2020.
- May SRW dropped to a fresh contract low at $5.26 before rebounding. Initial resistance stands at $5.35 1/2.
Live cattle are posting mild losses, while feeders are mixed.
- Nearby live cattle have turned lower after taking out the recent high, though solid technical support is limiting seller interest.
- Light cash cattle trade started around $185.00 in the northern market on Thursday, which was up from a week ago and a high for this year. Activity remained quiet in the Southern Plains, though cash sources also expect trade at higher prices there today.
- Wholesale beef values rose Thursday, which Choice increasing $1.70 to $306.61, while Select firmed $1.17 to $296.26. Movement was light, however, at only 97 loads.
- April live cattle poked above last week’s high of $189.20, with additional resistance at $190.11. Initial support is at $186.55.
Lean hogs are mostly lower at midsession.
- Nearby April hog futures are posting mild followthrough weakness amid persisting technical selling.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 17 cents to $81.48 as of March 6. The index is up $16.43 since marking a seasonal low at the beginning of the year and $2.39 above last year at this time.
- The pork cutout value fell 34 cents Thursday to $91.15 amid a drop in all cuts except primal butts and picnics. Movement totaled 300.5 loads.
- April lean hogs are facing resistance at the 20-day moving average of $85.12, while initial support is at $84.12.