Market Snapshot | March 5, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower.

• Corn futures are posting mild losses as notable selling in SRW wheat is providing spillover pressure.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn estimates unchanged at 112 MMT and 54 MMT, respectively. He maintains a neutral/lower bias toward Brazil’s crop and a neutral bias toward the Argentine crop.  
• Brazil rainfall during the next two weeks will likely not be enough to restore low subsoil moisture in center-west, southwest and interior southern parts of the nation where more rain will be needed later this month, according to World Weather Inc.
• China will sharply expand its budget to 140.63 billion yuan ($19.54 billion) to stockpile grains and edible oils this year and increase support and policies to boost agricultural production, aimed to improve food security.
• May corn futures continue to face resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4.31 3/4, while initial support remains at the 10-day moving average of $4.24.

Soybean futures are chopping around unchanged, as are soymeal contracts. May soyoil is about 10 points higher.

• Soybeans have rebounded from earlier lows but are directionless.
• Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean crop estimates unchanged at 145 MMT and 50 MMT, respectively. He maintains a neutral to lower bias toward Brazil’s crop.  
• Malaysia’s commodity exchange will launch a soyoil futures contract on March 18 to help arbitrage between soybean and palm oil contracts. The exchange will use the settlement price of the soyoil futures contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange as a basis for calculating the settlement price for its new U.S. dollar-denominated soyoil futures.
• May soybeans are trading above the 10-day moving average of $11.49, while the 10-day moving average currently around $11.68 3/4 is initial resistance.

SRW wheat futures are 13 to 16 cents lower, while HRW is mostly around a dime lower. HRS is 6 to 8 cents lower.

• SRW wheat is leading the complex lower despite persisting weakness in the U.S. dollar.
• Recent rains and the fading El Niño are expected to boost Australia’s wheat production to 28.4 MMT in 2024-25 from 26 MMT this year, the country’s ag ministry said.
• Indonesia will likely import larger volumes of wheat, driven by higher demand for flour and animal feed, a senior industry official said. Last year, the county imported 10.87 MMT of wheat.
• May SRW forged a fresh contract low at $5.49 1/4, with next support at $5.46 1/2, while initial resistance stands at $5.70 1/4.

Live cattle are modestly higher, while feeders are marking slightly stronger gains.

• Nearby live cattle are posting narrow gains, with underlying bullish fundamentals continuing to underpin futures.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price rose 35 cents to $183.30. Cash sources expect stead/firmer cash prices this week.
• Choice boxed beef prices rose $1.02 Monday to $306.30, while Select fell 57 cents to $295.17, widening the Choice/Select spread to $11.13. Movement was light at 77 loads.
• April live cattle are consolidating between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $187.20 and $186.58, with additional resistance/support at $188.23 and $185.83.

Lean hogs are facing notable pressure in nearby contracts, with modest losses in deferred months.

• Hog futures are facing followthrough pressure from fading technicals and slowed gains in the cash index.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 15 cents to $80.41 as of March 1.
• The pork cutout value slid $1.63 Monday to $92.82 amid a drop in all cuts except primal butts and ribs. Movement totaled 273.5 loads.
• April lean hogs are extending Monday’s losses, with support at the 20-day moving average of $84.57 curbing selling. The 10-day moving average of $86.49 is initial resistance.