Ahead of the Open | March 4, 2024
GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 11 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans continue to show relative strength, corn retraced Friday’s losses and wheat saw spillover strength overnight. Each firmed into the break. Outside markets did not lend much direction either way overnight, as front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index both pivoted near unchanged.
China snapped up more than 20 cargoes of feedgrain amounting to more than 1.2 MMT on the international market in the past two weeks, Bloomberg News reported. China secured shipments of corn, sorghum and barley from suppliers including Ukraine and U.S., the report said, citing people familiar with the transactions.
Most computer forecast models are increasing rainfall in southwestern and interior southern Brazil late this week into next week, according to World Weather Inc., while early week precipitation will be minimal as it was during the weekend. Northeastern Brazil will be favorably wet during the next two weeks. Southwestern Argentina will be dry for a while but should get rain this weekend and next week. Northeastern Argentina will be plenty wet this week.
Chevron indefinitely idled two Midwest biodiesel production facilities, the company confirmed on Friday, citing poor market conditions. Chevron idled plants in Ralston, Iowa, and Madison, Wisconsin, that combined can process 50 million gallon per year of biodiesel.
USDA reported daily sales of 110,000 MT of corn for delivery to Taiwan during the 2023-24 marketing year. USDA also reported sales of 126,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations. Of that total, 30,000 MT is for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year, with the remaining 96,000 MT for delivery during 2024-25.
CORN: May corn futures retraced Friday’s losses overnight. The $4.30 mark has stood as formidable resistance for four-consecutive sessions. Additional resistance stands at $4.33 1/2, then $4.35. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.27 1/2, $4.24 3/4, then $4.22 on renewed selling strength.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures surged overnight. Resistance stands at $11.66, the 20-day moving average at $11.71 1/2, then the psychological $11.75 mark. Overnight, bulls overcame initial resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $11.56, marking that as initial support. Additional support stands at $11.51 1/4, then $11.44 1/2.
WHEAT: May SRW futures marked a fresh contract low overnight, though bounced into the break. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.60, backed by $5.68, then the 10-day moving average at $5.71 3/4. Support stands at $5.53, the psychological $5.50 mark, then $5.43 1/2.
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a firmer tone in continuation of Friday’s strength. April futures bounced off uptrend support stemming from the December low and surged Friday, marking a fresh for-the-move high close. Cash cattle trade finished the week strong, with another weekly rise in the cash cattle average likely. Wholesale beef prices continue to surge, rising $1.08 to $305.28 in Choice and $1.56 to $295.74 in Select. While packer margins have improved amid the strengthening beef prices, they remain solidly in the red. Packers will likely continue to manage tight market-ready cattle supplies by reducing kill hours, which should further support beef prices.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher, continuing Friday’s technical strength, though waning gains in the CME lean hog index could limit buying after the open. April futures broke higher following a week of consolidation, ending the week at weekly highs and a fresh for-the-move high close. The CME lean hog index is up 11 cents to $80.26 today (as of Feb. 29), as gains have become more erratic. Traders may be reluctant to continue adding premium to the April future above the index, which already stands at $7.815, as of Friday’s close. Meanwhile, wholesale pork prices surged to the highest mark since October, rising $4.23 to $94.45, led by strength in bellies, though all cuts but loins saw gains.
