Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Fertilizers Resume Uptrend

Posted on 12/17/2018 3:56 PM

Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Fertilizers Resume Uptrend

  • Fertilizer prices were higher overall on the week although urea and phosphates softened.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 5.32 points to 598.50. This compares to our 5-year average of 601.87 for this week.

Nitrogennitrogen indices

  • Nitrogen prices were mixed with NH3 up more than $10 by the short ton on the week to lead overall gains.
  • UAN prices were sharply higher with 28% up $7.40 and 32% gaining $8.75 per short ton.
  • Our regional average urea price is just shy of $5 lower with Illinois and Wisconsin leading declines.
  • Natural gas futures fell sharply last week and even placed a downside gap this morning at the open. But the fresh gap is above the Nov. 5 upside gap, which remains unfilled. Technical analysis would tell us that the first gap to be filled will indicate the near-term price path of natgas futures. To signal technical downside potential, Jan. 2018 natgas futures will need to breach $3.33. To fill the upside gap, Jan. futures will have to firm to $3.79. If natural gas futures adopt a downtrend, we would expect offseason nitrogen prices to halt their upward advance.

Phosphatep and k indices chart

  • Phosphates were softer this week with DAP down $2.008 by the short ton.
  • MAP was only slightly softer, falling 6 cents regionally.
  • Once again, MosaicCo. reports sideways to lower wholesale phosphate prices for the week ended Dec. 14.
  • Meanwhile, wholesale sulphur prices were steady, but remain 273% above the same time last year, which will limit the downside for DAP and MAP.

Potash

  • Potash firmed, but fell to a discount to anhydrous ammonia when considered on an indexed basis -- due to anhydrous' runup this week.
  • Wholesale potash prices moved sideways at U.S. terminals in MosacicCo's latest report.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday December 14 at $4.03 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $653.94 per acre -- unchanged on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 598.50 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 5.32 points and now stands at -55.44.
Fertilizer
12/3/18
12/10/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$534.23
$537.29
+$12.15
$549.45
Anhydrous
DAP
$531.93
$535.15
-$2.08
$533.07
DAP
MAP
$541.55
$541.53
-6 cents
$541.47
MAP
Potash
$364.41
$365.17
+$2.16
$367.33
Potash
UAN28
$261.46
$267.94
+$7.40
$275.34
UAN28
UAN32
$292.35
$292.37
+$8.75
$301.11
UAN32
Urea
$416.93
$416.99
-$4.98
$412.02
Urea
Composite
590.10
593.18
+5.32
598.50
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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