First Thing Today | February 29, 2024
Good morning!
Corn and beans weaker, wheat mixed overnight... Corn and soybeans favored the downside and are near session lows this morning, while wheat is mostly weaker. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 7 to 13 cents lower, SRW wheat is mostly a penny lower, HRW wheat is 2 to 6 cents lower and HRS wheat is mixed. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer, while the U.S. dollar index is mildly weaker.
Weekly Export Sales Report out this morning... For the week ended Feb. 22, traders expect:
|
|
2023-24 expectations (in MT) |
Last week (in MT) |
|
Corn |
600,000-1,200,000 |
820,419 |
|
Wheat |
200,000-500,000 |
233,521 |
|
Soybeans |
100,000-600,000 |
55,919 |
|
Soymeal |
250,000-550,000 |
202,043 |
|
Soyoil |
(5,000)-10,000 |
(5,341) |
Wheat damage from bitter cold should be minimal... The blast of arctic temps that hit the central U.S. the past two nights likely resulted in limited damage to the winter wheat crop, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster said, “The lack of snow and sub-zero temperatures may have damaged some of the wheat in South Dakota, northern Nebraska, and southeastern Montana especially since winter hardiness was diminished in the warm weather of late. While minor production losses will be possible in areas hit hardest by the bitter cold, overall production potential will remain mostly unchanged.”
Red Sea shipping disruptions to persist... French container shipping giant CMA CGM expects disruptions to commercial shipping to last “months.” CMA CGM has suspended most Red Sea voyages but is still sending some cargoes on a case-by-case basis when French navy escorts were possible. Rival Maersk this week warned Red Sea disruptions could last into the second half of the year.
Russia not interested in restarting Black Sea grain deal... Russia is not interested in renewing the Black Sea grain deal as it has its own grain export capabilities, state-run TASS news agency reported, citing Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev. SovEcon estimates Russia exported 4.6 MMT of grain in February, with the 3.8 MMT of wheat shipments representing a record for the month. SovEcon expects Russia’s wheat exports to remain strong short-term as the competitiveness of supplies on the global market is recovering.
March grains start delivery... Today is First Notice Day for March grain contracts, the start of the delivery process. CBOT reported deliveries of 0 contracts for corn, 702 contracts for soybeans, 1 contract for soymeal, 271 contracts for soyoil, 484 contracts for SRW wheat and 56 contracts for HRW wheat.
Fourth stopgap spending agreement reached; House vote as soon as today... Lawmakers reached a short-term spending agreement to prevent a gov’t shutdown, extending funding until March 8 for six agencies (including USDA, Justice, Commerce, Energy, Interior, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development) and until March 22 for the remainder. This continuing resolution provides more time for leaders to negotiate a comprehensive funding deal. While the stopgap spending legislation is expected to receive support from House Democrats and Senate leadership, it may face opposition from conservative Republicans. Both chambers still need to vote on the proposal, which would be the fourth stopgap spending measure passed for fiscal year 2024.The House could vote on the continuing resolution as soon as today. Despite progress, the path to long-term funding remains uncertain, with this being the fourth extension since the original deadline last September.
Slow developing cash cattle market... Feedlots passed on steady/weaker cash cattle bids in the Southern Plains on Wednesday, while virtually no negotiations were reported in the northern market. Packers don’t want to raise cash bids again this week given negative margins, while feedlots are in no hurry to move cattle at lower prices.
Cash hog advance slows... The CME lean hog index is up 13 cents to $79.91 as of Feb. 27, though the seasonal advance has slowed the past four days. As of Wednesday’s close, April lean hog futures held a $6.09 premium to today’s cash quote.
Overnight demand news... Japan is seeking 78,974 MT of milling wheat.
See ‘Policy Updates’ for late-breaking morning news updates... For updates to items in “First Thing Today” or any late-breaking morning news stories, check “Policy Updates” on www.profarmer.com.
Today’s reports
- 7:30 a.m. Weekly Export Sales — FAS
- 2:00 p.m. Agricultural Prices — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Cold Storage - Annual — NASS
