Market Snapshot | February 26, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents lower.

Corn futures are edging lower for the fourth straight session, in tandem with soybean futures as South American weather continues to prove favorable for rapid safrinha planting.
Brazil-based consulting firm AgRural estimated safrinha corn planting at 73% done as of last Thursday, ahead of 56% at this time last year.
The biofuels industry and corn producers await an update of the Energy Department’s GREET model for calculating greenhouse gas emissions. Revisions expected to be unveiled by March 1 will determine whether corn-based ethanol used to make sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will qualify for tax credits.
Most of Argentina will get at least some rain in the next 10 days, although southern areas will have need for greater amounts to prevent the region from becoming too dry in the first part of March, states World Weather Inc.
USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.242 MMT (48.9 million bu.) during the week ended Feb. 22, up 189,447 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of expectations from 550,000 MT to 1.15 MMT.
May corn notched a fresh contract low at $4.08 3/4 overnight. Next support is at the psychological $4.00 mark, while initial resistance stands at $4.19 1/2.

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, while May soymeal is around $1.00 lower. May soyoil is near unchanged.

Soybeans are mildly favoring the downside, in an extension of last week’s notable selling amid tepid U.S. export demand.
AgRural cut its Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 2.4 MMT to 147.7 MMT, with reductions mainly in Paraná and Mato Grosso Do Sul due to heat in irregular rains in January and part of February.
Harvest in Brazil was 40% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, ahead of 33% on the same date last year.
Brazil weather over the next 10 days leaves Mato Grosso do Sul, western Sao Paulo and a few areas in northwestern Parana drier than usual with a rising need for greater rain, according to World Weather.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 974,977 MT (35.8 million bu.), down 316,435 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.3 MMT
May soybeans carved a fresh low at $11.35 during overnight trade. Next support is at $11.33 3/4, while initial resistance is at $11.54.

HRW wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents higher, while SRW and HRS are mostly unchanged to 2 cents lower higher.

Wheat futures are choppy this morning, with markets making swings to either side of unchanged.
Ukraine has exported almost 4.7 MMT of grain so far this month, almost equal to the same period last year, according to agriculture ministry data.
Some crop damage may have occurred earlier this year in the northwestern U.S. Plains and there is still some concern over wheat production in southern Spain, although recent rain has been timely, states World Weather.
Over the weekend, South Korea purchased 172,300 MT of wheat, including 85,900 MT of U.S., 50,000 Australian and 36,400 MT Canadian.
USDA reported wheat export inspections of 481,999 MT (17.7 million bu.), up 62,221 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 525,000 MT.
May SRW futures have turned from the overnight low, though resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $5.80 3/4, continues to curb upside momentum. Initial support remains at $5.66 1/2.

Live cattle are narrowly mixed, while feeders are under pressure.

Live cattle futures have rebounded from a lower start.
USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed the Feb. 1 feedlot inventory up 0.4% from year-ago, while placements fell 7.4% and marketings inched down 0.1%. Placements were down from year-ago levels for a third straight month.
Due to technical issues, USDA delayed the Cold Storage Report from last Friday to this afternoon.
Wholesale beef prices rose Friday, with Choice increasing 82 cents to $300.61, while Select gained 50 cents to$286.31, widening the Choice/Select spread to $14.30. Movement totaled 146 loads.
April live cattle are consolidating, with initial support remaining at $186.45, while resistance stands at $187.35.

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

Hog futures have rebounded from a weaker start, though buyer interest is limited in nearby contracts given their premium to the cash index.
The CME lean hog index is up 32 cents to $79.10 as of Feb. 22, extending the seasonal price climb.
China’s sow herd totaled 40.67 million head at the end of January, down 1.8% on a monthly basis and 6.9% below year-ago, according to ag ministry data. Hog slaughter rose 28.6% from year-ago during January to 37.25 million head, though that was down 6.4% from the previous month.
The pork cutout value fell 73 cents Friday to $91.16 amid a $9 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 283.9 loads.
April lean hogs gapped lower at the open and traded as low as $85.525, with support at the 10-day moving average of $84.96 liming selling. Resistance is at the session high of $87.00.

Tags