Market Snapshot | February 16, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Wheat producers: Increase old- and new-crop sales... Wheat futures dropped to new contract lows, opening more near-term downside risk. With funds heavily short across the wheat complex, hedges are risky. We advise wheat hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 10% of 2023-crop to get to 70% priced in the cash market. We also advise selling another 10% of expected 2024-crop production to get to 20% forward priced for harvest delivery.

 

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midsession.

  • Corn futures are modestly favoring the upside, led by corrective gains in the soy complex, though buyer interest is limited.
  • Argentina will experience net drying for the next week or so, although some rain will fall in the far west late next week, according to World Weather Inc.
  • Lawmakers wrote a letter to the Biden administration Thursday to ensure American farmers can benefit from tax credits aimed at reducing climate-change pollution through the production of lower-emission jet fuel.
  • March corn forged a fresh contract low at $4.16 1/2. Next support is at $4.15, backed by $4.12 1/4 and $4.07 1/4. Initial resistance stands at $4.22 3/4.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $5.50 higher. March soyoil is about 40 points lower.

  • Soybeans have regained Thursday’s losses amid solid gains in soymeal futures, though overhead resistance continues to limit buying efforts.
  • World Weather notes much of Brazil and Paraguay will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next 10 days with breaks between rounds of rain to allow for fieldwork to advance while the rain maintains favorable conditions for summer crops.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures fell overnight, ending the week with nearly 2% losses, which is helping pressure soyoil.
  • March soybeans moved back above resistance at $11.71 1/4, though additional resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $12.00. Thursday’s low of $11.60 1/4 is initial support.

 

SRW wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents lower, with HRW 7 to 8 cents lower, while HRS is mostly a penny lower.

  • Winter wheat futures are lower for the third straight session amid eroding technicals and a lack of supportive news.
  • France’s ag ministry rated 68% of the country’s wheat crop in good or excellent condition as of Feb. 12, unchanged from the previous week but the lowest for this time of year since 2020.
  • In overnight demand news, Egypt purchased 180,000 MT of wheat, including 120,000 MT Ukrainian and 60,000 MT Romanian.
  • March SRW futures fell to the lowest intraday level since Nov. 27, but found support at $5.59 1/2. Additional support is at $5.52 1/4. Initial resistance is at $5.72 1/4.

 

Live cattle are posting moderate to strong gains, while feeders are sharply higher.

  • Live cattle are extending Thursday’s gains to more than a three-month high.
  • Cash cattle trade continues to take place around $180.00, down $1.00 from last week’s cash average.
  • Wholesale beef values rose Thursday, with Choice firming $1.30 to $295.30, while Select surged $3.97 to $287.99, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $7.31. Movement totaled 134 loads for the day.
  • April live cattle found support at the 10-day moving average of $185.44 and reached the highest intraday level since Nov. 3, filling the Nov. 6 gap. Resistance is at $189.47.

 

Lean hogs are narrowly mixed at midsession.

  • Hog futures are pausing at the end of the week following strong gains earlier this week.
  • The CME lean hog index is up 52 cents to $75.12 as of Feb. 14.
  • The pork cutout value surged $3.88 Thursday to $89.79 amid $6-plus gains in primal hams and bellies. Movement totaled 238.5 loads.
  • April lean hogs continue to face support at $84.51, while resistance stands at the Jan. 30 high of $85.925.

 

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