Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Potash Hints at Resistance for NH3

Posted on 11/20/2018 1:41 PM

 

  • This week, fertilizer prices were mixed and slightly lower overall.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 0.49 points to 588.04. This compares to our 5-year average of 603.29 for this week.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia led gains in the nitrogen segment. Of note this week, NH3 moved to a slight premium to potash when vitamin K is considered on an indexed basis. We have speculated that anhydrous will find tough resistance at potash's price point.
  • UAN28% was higher on a sharp upside move in Kansas.
  • UAN32% was up 20 cents on the week with state-by-state gains and declines nearly offsetting each other.
  • Urea fell moderately on the week with Missouri leading declines as Wisconsin led gains.
  • Recent gains in natural gas futures imply upside risk for all forms of nitrogen fertilizer.

Phosphatep and k indices

  • DAP was off on the week with Michigan leading declines.
  • Map was slightly higher with Indiana leading gains.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale phosphate prices were sideways to lower at all U.S. terminals reported in the week ended November 16.
  • Wholesale sulphur prices are steady on the week, but are roughly $30 per short ton lower than they were just a few weeks ago. That may be enough to open the door for an offseason decline in retail DAP and MAP pricing.

Potash

  • Potash declined a penny per short ton regionally this week led by price softness Michigan.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale potash prices were slightly higher at NOLA and slightly lower at Corn Belt terminals in the week ended November 16.nh3 and potash chart
  • As noted above, our indexed potash price is as a slight discount to NH3 this week. While the two have shown they can spend several weeks trundling around parity, from a purely technical standpoint, we may be observing the seasonal price high for both NH3 and vitamin K.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday November 16 at $3.98 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $645.29 per acre -- off $6.92 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 588.04 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 1.43 points and now stands at -64.66.
Fertilizer
11/5/18
11/12/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$521.89
$532.73
+$6.43
$539.16
Anhydrous
DAP
$526.03
$525.79
-$3.41
$522.39
DAP
MAP
$536.88
$536.71
+12 cents
$536.83
MAP
Potash
$362.64
$363.03
-1 cent
$363.02
Potash
UAN28
$255.68
$256.43
+$5.30
$261.74
UAN28
UAN32
$308.55
$299.50
+20 cents
$299.70
UAN32
Urea
$412.47
$414.29
-$6.79
$407.50
Urea
Composite
587.85
587.55
+0.49
588.04
Composite

fertrilizer indices chart

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