Market Snapshot | February 13, 2024

Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher.

• Corn futures are posting mild gains despite general pressure in the grain and soy markets and notable strength in the U.S. dollar.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Brazilian corn crop estimate by 3 MMT to 112 MMT amid lower first-crop plantings and expected smaller safrinha seedings. Cordonnier also cut his Argentine corn estimate 2 MMT to 54 MMT. He now expects South American corn production to fall 5.1 MMT (2.9%) from year-ago.
• World Weather Inc. reports Argentina’s weather will be a little drier today for the coming 10 days to two weeks, especially in the south.
• Farmers in Ukraine are expected to reduce the area sown to corn by 9% from last year, according to a survey compiled by the country’s agriculture ministry.
• Houthi rebels fired missiles at a corn cargo ship in the Red Sea destined for Iran on Monday, causing minor damage but no injuries, according to U.S. military officials.
• March corn is facing resistance at $4.35 1/4, while support lies at $4.27 3/4. A breakout of the range will face additional resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.37 3/4, while further support lies at $4.25 1/4.

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, while March soymeal is modestly weaker. March soyoil is about 10 points lower.

• Soybean futures are pressured by overhead resistance and mostly favorable weather conditions in Brazil.
• Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soybean crop estimate 2 MMT to 147 MMT, noting continued disappointing yields as harvest progresses. Cordonnier also trimmed his Argentina soybean estimate by 2 MMT to 50 MMT. He still expects South American soybean production to rise 12.2 MMT (6.1%) from last year.
• Most of Brazil and Paraguay will see a mix of rain and sunshine that will allow for fieldwork to advance, while soil moisture in place and expected rain should allow for most crops to develop favorably.
• Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell more than expected to their lowest level in six months at the end of January as production plunged to the lowest level in nine months amid steady exports.
• March soybeans are limited by the 10-day moving average at $11.98 3/4, while support is at last week’s low of $11.79 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 1 to 4 cents higher, while HRW is around a nickel lower. HRS is 2 to 6 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are being pressured by notable strength in the U.S. dollar index, while corrective buying efforts in corn are limiting selling.
• Operations at the port of Antwerp, one of Europe’s biggest container ports, were seriously impacted earlier today as hundreds of Belgian farmers on tractors blocked the roads around the port demanding looser environmental rules and better protection against cheap imports.
• France’s ag ministry lowered its estimate of the area sown with winter wheat by 130,000 hectares to 4.36 million hectares. That would be down 7.7% from last year’s seedings and the second lowest in the past 30 years after heavy rain disrupted planting.
• March SRW futures are consolidating between the 40-day moving average of $6.05 and support at $5.89 1/2. A move outside of the range will face additional resistance at $6.10 3/4 and support at $5.81 3/4.

Live cattle are slightly to moderately lower, while feeders are posting heavier losses.

• Live cattle are extending Monday’s weakness though technical support is limiting a move lower.
• Last week’s average cash cattle price rose $3.35 from the previous week to $181.15, which is the highest level since the week ended Nov. 3 of last year.
• Choice boxed beef prices rose 4 cents to $294.08 on Monday, while Select gained $1.94 to $287.02, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $7.06. Movement was light at 89 loads.
• April live cattle gapped lower at the open but are being supported by 10- and 200-day moving averages of $184.53 and $184.40. Meanwhile, initial resistance is at today’s high of $185.65.

Lean hogs are mixed at midmorning.

• Hog futures have rebounded from earlier lows but are facing notable overhead resistance.
• The CME lean hog index is up a dime to $73.70 as of Feb. 9, snapping a two-day decline.
• The pork cutout value surged $2.57 Monday to $88.54 amid gains in all cuts except primal ribs. Movement totaled 223.7 loads for the day.
• April lean hogs have edged below support at $80.41 before rebounding. Additional support is at $79.69. Initial resistance stands at the 200-day moving average of $81.67.