Market Snapshot | February 6, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

 

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 3 cents lower.

  • Corn futures are continuing to trade sideways in narrow consolidative trade, though increasing gains in the soy complex are underpinning prices.
  • South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 115 MMT, noting a lower bias going forward as a return of hot, dry weather may affect south-central Brazil as soon as the second half of February. His Argentine corn crop estimate was unchanged at 56 MMT, noting a tentative neutral bias as he waits to see if forecast rains later this week develop.
  • World Weather Inc. reports Argentina’s forecast is still tilted toward relief for most areas of the nation in the next 10 days. The moisture should turn around crop development after a stressful period, though follow-up rain will be very important.
  • March corn continues to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.45 3/4, while initial support lies at $4.39 3/4 and is backed by $4.36 3/4.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 2 cents higher, while March soymeal is around $1.00 lower. March soyoil is nearly 60 points higher.

  • Soybeans futures are higher for the second straight session, though technical pressure is limiting buyer interest.
  • Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 149 MMT, stating weather has been a “mixed bag” due to heavier rainfall in northern areas, with only light rain in the south. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 52 MMT. He indicated a neutral to lower bias for the Brazilian crop and tentative neutral bias toward Argentine production.
  • Southern Brazil has been drying down, which will continue into early next week, except in Mato Grosso do Sul, notes World Weather. Northern Brazil will continue to receive abundant rain through early next week, then a period of drier weather is expected to evolve.
  • March soybean futures continue to be limited by resistance at $12.03 1/4 and the 10-and 20-day moving averages of $12.09 1/2 and $12.18, respectively. Initial support lies at $11.91 1/4.

 

Winter wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while HRS is mostly 3 to 5 cents higher.

  • Wheat futures are favoring the upside in subdued trade as notable overhead resistance limits buying interest.
  • World Weather Inc. reports the Western Commonwealth of Independent States will remain wet with frequent snow and rain to continue over the next 10 days, raising concerns for growing crops amid high flood potentials, especially in western Russia.
  • Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 MT of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender earlier today, European traders said.
  • March SRW futures are trading within Monday’s lower range, suppressed by resistance at the 20-, 10-, 100- and 40-day moving averages layered from $5.97 3/4 to $6.07 1/2. Meanwhile, initial support lies at Monday’s low of $5.86 3/4.

 

Live cattle and feeders are posting strong gains at midsession.

  • Cattle are gaining back Monday’s losses but being limited by overhead resistance.
  • Cash cattle prices rose for the third straight week last week and have gained $4.33 during the span. Cash sources expect generally firmer prices this week, though negative cutting margins may limit packers’ willingness to actively bid for cattle.
  • Wholesale beef prices rose modestly Monday with Choice gaining 40 cents to $293.48 while Select gained 30 cents to $283.77. Movement was light at only 85 loads.
  • April live cattle are hovering above the 100-day moving average of $182.02, while resistance at $183.80 is curbing buying efforts.

 

Lean hogs are moderately lower.

  • Hog futures are facing another day of notable selling amid extended profit-taking.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 44 cents to $73.56 as of Feb. 2 and has risen $8.51 since the beginning of the year.
  • The pork cutout value fell another 80 cents to $87.60, led by a $6.50 drop in primal bellies. Movement totaled 240.8 loads.
  • April lean hogs gapped lower and have fallen below the 200-day moving average of $81.80, with support at $81.22 being tested. Initial resistance is at the session high of $82.15.

 

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