Market Snapshot | February 2, 2024

Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

 

Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are posting followthrough weakness, in tandem with soybean futures. Outside market pressure is also casting a shadow over commodities.
  • Argentina’s heat continues to accelerate drying and intensify crop stress, notes World Weather Inc. The driest areas remain in Buenos Aires and La Pampa where temps have been the hottest recently. Rainfall will remain minimal for 6 more days.
  • The U.S. ag attaché in Argentina projects the country’s corn crop at 57 MMT, 2 MMT more than USDA’s forecast last month, due mostly do a larger planted area.
  • Corn planting reached 98.4% complete during the week ended Jan. 31, up 1.2 percentage points, according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange. High temps during the week prompted a 15.4 percentage point drop in optimal/adequate water conditions as crops are in the early grain-filling stage and late crops are entering a critical period.
  • March corn is facing support at $4.41 3/4, backed by this week’s low of $4.36 1/2, while resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $4.49 1/4.

 

Soybean futures are mostly 8 to 10 cents lower, while March meal is more than $2.00 lower. March soyoil is nearly 90 points lower.

  • Soybeans futures have given up nearly of all this week’s gains as weak export demand and fresh South American supplies limit the appetite for buying.
  • Western and southern Brazil are drying down increasing the need for greater rain and less heat, notes World Weather. Northeastern Brazil is also expected to dry down for a while, though after recent rain the change will be welcome in some areas that are wetter than others.
  • Soybean planting progress in Argentina concluded after a weekly advance of 1.2 percentage points during the week ending Jan. 31, according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange. Areas rated “good” to excellent” decreased eight percentage points to 36% during the week.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses for the fourth straight session overnight, marking their worst week in nine months after top buyer India sought to cut vegetable oil imports, while prolonged weakness in rival edibles and a stronger ringgit also weighed.
  • March soybean losses are being limited by support at $11.94 1/2, backed by support at this week’s low of $11.87 3/4. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $12.17 serves as initial resistance.

 

Wheat futures are mostly a penny to 4 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are mostly favoring the upside but continue to be pressured by overhead resistance. A sharply higher U.S. dollar is also curbing momentum.
  • The U.S. ag attaché in Argentina forecasts the Argentine wheat crop at 15.4 MMT, 400,000 MT higher than USDA, as yields were stronger than expected.
  • Pakistan’s federal government has banned state-level imports of wheat, broadcaster ARY news reported. The decision was made as flour prices are stable and the country has plentiful wheat reserves.
  • March SRW futures have traded the highest level since Jan. 26, though resistance continues to serve at the 10- and 100-day moving averages of $6.01 1/4 and $6.04 1/4, while support at the 20-day moving average of $5.99 1/4 limits losses.

 

Live cattle are modestly higher, while feeders post modest gains at midmorning.

  • Cattle are posting notable followthrough gains amid persisting bullish supply fundamentals, though technical resistance is limiting a move higher.
  • Cash cattle trade turned active Thursday as packers raised bids $2 to $4 from last week, depending on location. After weeks of holiday- and weather-related slowdowns, packers are planning for bigger kill amid being short bought on needs.
  • Choice boxed beef prices rose 40 cents to $294.94, while Select fell 92 cents to $283.25. Movement totaled 128 loads.
  • February live cattle are being limited by the 200-day moving average of $181.34, while initial support lies at the 100-day of $179.37.

 

Lean hogs are mixed at midsession.

  • Hog futures are modestly higher as traders pause as the cash index begins to post reduced gains following a series of notable increases.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 33 cents to $72.71 but is a smaller gain from the past three days.
  • The pork cutout value rose $1.03 to $88.59 despite a $5 drop in primal bellies.
  • April lean hogs are trading within Thursday’s range, with support serving at the previous session’s low of $82.825, while resistance stands at $85.075.

 

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