Market Snapshot | January 30, 2024

Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher.

• Corn futures have mildly rebounded from weakness overnight and in the previous session amid corrective buying, led by strength in the soy complex.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates unchanged at 115 MMT and 56 MMT, respectively. Cordonnier indicates a lower bias going forward for the Brazilian crop and a neutral bias toward the Argentine crop.
• World Weather Inc. reports Argentina topsoil moisture is rated short to very short and crops are now relying on subsoil moisture to sustain normal development. Rain is still advertised after day 10 in Argentina, though the forecaster states the precip must not be further delayed in order to protect Argentina production potential in the driest areas.
• March corn has rebounded from earlier lows, with resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.45 1/2, while support lies at Monday’s low of $4.36 1/2.

Soybean futures are mostly 8 to 12 cents higher, while March meal is around $6.50 higher. March soyoil is mildly weaker.

• Soybeans are notching corrective gains after reaching a near eight-month low in overnight trade. Strength in soymeal futures is helping fuel the corrective buying.
• Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 149 MMT and 52 MMT, respectively. He notes soybean yields across Brazil continue to be disappointing everywhere harvest has started, suggesting his estimate could move lower. Cordonnier states hot/dry weather developing in Argentina as crops enter reproduction is worrisome, and now holds a neutral bias toward production.
• Timely rains are expected in northern Brazil and should continue to experience favorable crop weather for later-maturing soybeans, notes World Weather. Some southern areas will trend drier this week, though rains could resume next week.
• Soybean oil prices on China’s Dalian Commodities Exchange fell for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, with soymeal prices also declining as demand slowed. The soybean oil contract for May delivery fell 3.8% to a seven-month closing low of 7,204 yuan ($1,003.79) a metric ton.
•  March soybeans traded at the lowest level since June 8 in overnight trade, shy of testing support at $11.86 1/4, while initial resistance is at the 10-day moving average of $12.16 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher at midmorning, whiles spring wheat is around a penny higher.

• Wheat futures are correctively higher, in tandem with corn futures, following two days of notable losses.
• State-level winter wheat crop condition ratings released on Monday signaled a general improvement in the HRW crop over the past month, led by top producer Kansas. When the state crop ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-poing scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 11.6 points from the end of December to 345.3 and stood 22.0 points above USDA’s final national rating at the end of November.
• U.S. crops are rated mixed with concern over bitter cold damage in the northwestern Plains from earlier this month, states World Weather, while most of the Midwest crops and those in HRW wheat country are in good shape.
• March SRW futures have edged back above the 10-day moving average of $5.96, though resistance at the 20-day moving average of $5.99 3/4 is limiting upside. Support is at the overnight low of $5.84 1/2.

Live cattle are mixed in choppy trade, while feeders are marking moderate to strong gains.

• Nearby live cattle futures are facing pressure from a drop in wholesale values and pausing ahead of Wednesday’s Cattle Inventory Report and this week’s cash cattle activity.
• Packers purchased 83,000 head of cattle in the negotiated market last week as the average price rose $1.68 to $175.44, the highest since the week ended Nov. 24, 2023. But packers continued to limit slaughter runs, including a small Saturday kill, suggesting they will keep closely managing their supplies.
• Wholesale beef prices slid Monday with Choice falling $1.11 to $299.42, while Select dropped 31 cents to $288.82. Movement was light at 68 loads.
• February live cattle are consolidating mostly between initial resistance of $178.85 and $176.58.

Lean hogs are posting moderate to strong gains at midsession.

• February hog futures are moving higher for the seventh straight session as cash fundamentals continue to improve.
• The CME lean hog index rose another 70 cents to $70.60 as of Jan. 26, marking the second largest daily increase during this month’s seasonal rally.  
• The pork cutout value fell 44 cents to $89.07 amid losses in all cuts aside from primal ribs and bellies. Movement totaled 315.1 loads.
• February lean hogs pushed through the initial barrier at $75.94 but are facing resistance at the 200-day moving average of $76.36. Initial support remains at $74.63.