Market Snapshot | January 26, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing selling amid notable pressure on SRW wheat futures.
• More ships carrying grain were diverted from the Suez Canal to sailings around the Cape of Good Hope this week after attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, according to a shipping analyst. “Another 16 vessels were confirmed diverted this week, taking total grain cargoes diverted to some 3.9 million tons, up from 3.0 million tons last week, Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at data provider Kpler, told Reuters.
• Brazil’s state of Paraná is expected to produce a first corn crop of 2.6 MMT, as state agency Deral reduced its estimate by 397,600 MT. The new estimate is 503,316 MT lower than initial forecasts and 31% lower than last year’s harvest. The agency increased the state’s safrinha corn crop to 14.55 MMT, which represents a 2% increase over year-ago.
• World Weather Inc. reports Argentina is advertised to be wetter in the Feb. 5-10 period relative to model runs earlier this week. Central and southern Buenos Aires and southern La Pampa are already too dry and crop stress has been rising.
• March corn has extended below support at $4.48 1/4 and the 10-day moving average of $4.46 1/4, with support at $4.45 curbing selling. Initial resistance remains at $4.53 1/4.

Soybean futures are mostly 6 to 8 cents lower, while March meal is around $2.00 lower. March soyoil is modestly firmer.

• Soybeans are extending Thursday’s weakness amid mostly favorable weather conditions across Brazil.
• Brazil’s state of Paraná 2023-24 soybean crop estimate was reduced by 2.48 MMT to 19.24 MMT, down 2.7 MMT from initial forecasts and 14% lower than the 2022-23 season, according to state agency Deral.
• Brazil weather will continue wettest in the north for another week, according to World Weather, with local flooding possible, though no serious crop damage is expected. Southern areas will trend drier.
• USDA reported 100,000 MT of soymeal sales to unknown destinations during 2023-24.
•  March soybeans are facing support at $12.09 3/4, with additional support lying at $12.00 and $11.96 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $12.28 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are around 15 to 18 cents lower, while HRS is mostly 9 to 10 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are posting notable corrective losses following a string of gains over the past ten days.
• Strong export demand and insufficient supply from farmers have pushed up Ukrainian milling wheat prices this week, analyst APK-Inform said. It said the prices for second class food wheat had risen by $7.90 to $13.20 per MT versus the previous week, reaching $179.80 to $203.50 MT CPT (Carriage Paid To).
• Chinese customs authorities have included Argentina in its list of countries eligible to export wheat to China, according to a statement by the Argentine government earlier today.
• March SRW futures have retreated below the short-term and intermediate moving averages. Next support is at $5.91 1/4. Meanwhile, initial resistance stands at $6.12.

Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate- to strong gains at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are extending higher for the fourth straight session, supported by notably higher cash cattle trade.
•  After initial trade at $1.00 higher prices on Wednesday, cash cattle traded mostly $2.00 higher yesterday. Cash sources indicated the bulk of trade was completed in the Southern Plains, while there could still be some cleanup sales in the northern market.
• Choice boxed beef prices slid 82 cents to $298.68, while Select rose 68 cents to $287.85, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $10.83. Movement increased to 146 loads.

• February live cattle futures’ next major area of resistance stands at the 100-day moving average of $179.99, while initial support lies at $176.87.

Lean hogs are marginally higher at midsession.

• February hog futures are modestly higher in consolidative trade following strong gains earlier in the week.
• The CME lean hog index firmed another 28 cents to $69.67 as of Jan. 24, extending the string of gains off the seasonal low to start the month.
• The pork cutout value rose 5 cents Thursday to $88.91, while movement totaled 336.7 loads.
• February lean hogs are trading within Thursday’s range, with initial support at $73.75, while resistance stands at $74.73.