Market Snapshot | January 17, 2024

Corn futures are mostly unchanged to a penny higher.

• Corn futures have rebounded from a fresh contract low carved in early trade led by a corrective bounce in SRW wheat.
• Market penetration of genetically modified crops in China could reach 85% within three to five years once the industry is fully commercialized, GMO developer Beijing Dabeinong Technology said. Dabeinong said its forecast is based on experience in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina, where GM corn and soybeans are widely planted.
• Argentina will dry out for a while, but crop development should normally occur, according to World Weather Inc. There will be a little crop stress in southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa next as the soil becomes a little too dry, though most other areas will see favorable weather continue.
• March corn has found support at $4.39 3/4, with additional support serving at $4.36 1/4. Initial resistance stands at $4.49 1/4.

Soybeans are around 11 to 16 cents lower, while March soymeal is more than $8.00 lower. March soyoil is fractionally higher.

• Soybeans are being led lower by strong selling in soymeal futures.
• EarthDaily Agro, a division of Canada-based EarthDaily Analytics, said data suggests Brazilian farmers in top Brazilian grain grower Mato Grosso state are looking at the lowest yield trend of the past 15 years.
• In Brazil timely rain will impact all crop areas and there should be sufficient moisture to support a very good environment for crop development, including the drier areas of Bahia, northern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo and those in the southwest that have recently been drying down, according to World Weather.
• March soybeans have edged below support at $12.19 1/4 and $12.11 1/2, with additional support serving at last week’s low of $12.03. Meanwhile, initial resistance stands at $12.36 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are around 4 to 8 cents higher, while HRW is a penny to 2 cents higher. HRS is chopping around unchanged.

• Wheat futures have taken back a portion of Tuesday’s losses amid looming crop damage concerns in the U.S, while U.S. dollar strength limits gains.
• Concern over possible U.S. crop damage from the weekend bitter cold may continue to provide a little bullishness, but until the damage is adequately assessed the potential impact will be quite speculative, notes World Weather.
• France’s ag ministry trimmed its 2023-24 wheat export forecast outside the EU by 100,000 MT to 10.1 MMT, which would be 0.5% below last year.
• Ukraine has exported 2.5 MMT of grain so far this month, agriculture ministry data showed earlier today.
• France AgriMer lowered its forecast for French wheat exports in 2023-24, citing lower demand from China and increased competition from Black Sea exporters in Egypt and southern Europe.
• March SRW futures are trading within Tuesday’s range, with initial resistance serving at $5.97 1/4, while initial support lies at the previous session’s low of $5.71 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting mild- to moderate losses at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are moderately lower, but seemingly continuing the recent grind higher from early December lows.
• Last week’s cash cattle price fell 54 cents from the previous week to $173.47, futures surged on Tuesday, marking the highest daily close since November.
• Wholesale beef values surged Tuesday with Choice gaining $3.57 to $294.99, while Select climbed $7.42 to $279.98, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $15.01. Movement totaled only 112 loads.
• February live cattle are trading within Tuesday’s upper range, with resistance serving at the previous session’s high of $173.25, while support lies at the 50-day moving average of $171.80.

Lean hogs are modestly lower at midsession.

• Hog futures are edging lower for the third straight session, though technicals are limiting losses.
• The CME lean hog index rose 30 cents to $66.85 as of Jan. 15, marking gains in the five of the last six days.
• The pork cutout value rose 73 cents to $87.79, amid a rise in all cuts. Movement totaled 325.4 loads.
• February lean hogs have fallen below the 10-day moving average of $70.43, though support at the 40- and 20-day moving averages of $70.04 and $69.98. Initial resistance continues to serve at $71.71.