WSJ Survey: Probability of Recession Down Sharply, But Will Feel Like Recession for Many

Trump wins big in Iowa | Houthis hit U.S.-owned ship | Perspective on Vilsack and CCC

MARKET FOCUS

• WSJ survey: Probability of U.S. recession down sharply
• Fed widely expected to cut rates this year, though economists divided over when
• Federal Reserve balance sheet
• Dr. Vince Malanga sizes up key economic indicators and potential scenarios
• Eurozone inflation expectations fall to near 2-year low
• Codelco, largest copper producer globally, reports big decrease in copper output
• Ag markets today
• USDA daily export sale: 126,700 MT corn to Mexico during 2023-2024 marketing year
• India extends lower import duties on crude palm oil, crude sunflower oil, crude soyoil
• India has no plans to import
• AgRural slashes Brazilian soybean production forecast
• Ag trade update
• NWS weather outlook
• Pro Farmer First Thing Today items

CONGRESS

• Both chambers this week to consider CR with March 1, March 8 stopgap spending
• Will GOP rebel try to oust House speaker?
• Disaster aid likely to be included in bipartisan tax package proposal

ISRAEL/HAMAS CONFLICT 

• Hamas releases video of three hostages
• UN: Israel's war in Gaza has brought famine with "such incredible speed”
• Iran claims responsibility for attacks near U.S. consulate in northern Iraq
   

RUSSIA & UKRAINE

• Cold didn’t impact Ukraine’s winter crops
• Ukraine claims air force shot down Russian spy plane, erious damage to another
   

POLICY

• Perspective on Vilsack signaling Congress should tap CCC to boost reference prices
   

CHINA

• Biden: U.S. does not support independence for Taiwan
• Sen. Tester renews call for stricter regulations on sale of U.S. farmland to China
• China’s Q1 soybean imports seen slowing to four-year low as hog herds shrink
   

LIVESTOCK, NUTRITION & FOOD INDUSTRY

• As Americans eat more cheese and butter, push for cows to produce fattier milk
• Kroger-Albertsons merger delayed amid regulatory discussions and asset sale
• In November, U.S. pork exports reached new records in key markets
   

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

• Trump wins Iowa caucuses by record margin, sets sights on 2024 GOP nomination
   

— Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 100 points lower and is currently around 200 points lower. European stocks opened lower as central-bank officials signaled that interest-rate cuts were not imminent. Speaking at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Robert Holzmann, governor of the Austrian central bank, said that he does not expect any rate cuts in 2024. Joachim Nagel, the head of Germany’s central bank, said that “it’s too early to talk about cuts.” In Asia, Japan -0.8%. Hong Kong -2.2%. China +0.3%. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.6%.

     U.S. equities Friday: The Dow Stock indices finished mixed with the Blue Chip index lower and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher, but all three markets notched gains for the week. On Friday, the Dow was down 118.04 points, 0.31%, at 37,592.98. The Nasdaq edged up 2.57 points, 0.02%, at 14,972.76. The S&P 500 was up 3.59 points, 0.08%, at 4,783.83.

     For the week, the Dow Jones edged up 0.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.8% and the Nasdaq jumped 3.1%.

     Two-year Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels since May, dropping 24 basis points for the week, as an unexpected decline in producer prices reversed trader pessimism from a surprise bounce in consumer prices.

— Financial companies continue to be the majority of early reporters at the start of fourth-quarter earnings season. Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, and PNC Financial Services Group announce results on Tuesday. Charles Schwab, Discover Financial Services, and U.S. Bancorp follow suit on Wednesday. Truist Financial reports on Thursday. Fifth Third Bancorp and State Street close out the week on Friday.

— Agriculture markets Friday:

• Corn: March corn futures dropped 10 3/4 cents to $4.47, marking a fresh contract low on the session and losing 13 3/4 cents on the week.
• Soy complex: March soybeans fell 12 1/4 cents to $12.24 1/4 and gave up 32 cents on the week. March soyoil closed 10 cents lower at $362.10 and fell $7.30 from a week ago. March soyoil lost 47 points on the day, closing at 48.25 cents but gained 62 points week-over-week.  
• Wheat: March SRW wheat futures fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.96 and hit a six-week low. For the week, March SRW lost 20 cents. March HRW wheat futures lost 3/4 cent to $6.15 1/4 and also hit a six-week low. Prices lost 12 3/4 cents for the week. March spring wheat fell 1/2 cent to $6.99 1/2 and is down 12 1/2 cents on the week.
• Cotton: March cotton fell 5 points to 81.31 cents but gained 112 points on the week.
• Cattle: February live cattle futures fell 42 1/2 cents to $171.375 and nearer the session low. For the week, February cattle rose 80 cents. March feeder cattle futures rose 30 cents to $227.70, near mid-range and hitting a six-week high. For the week, March feeders rose $3.55.
• Hogs: Hog futures ended the day and week rather poorly. Nearby February fell 70 cents to $71.90 at Friday’s close. That represented a weekly rise of $1.90.
   

— Ag markets today: Soybeans and wheat posted mild corrective gains overnight, while corn futures extended their price slide. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 6 to 7 cents higher, SRW and HRS wheat were mostly a penny higher and HRW wheat was 3 to 4 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were modestly firmer, while the U.S. dollar index is nearly 800 points higher.

     Cash cattle uncertainty. Packers didn’t get many cattle bought last week due to the wintry weather conditions. As a result, showlist numbers will be up this week. But the heavy snow and blizzard conditions stressed cattle, which could impact weights and grading. Traders are generally expecting firmer cash prices, though they will likely have to wait until later in the week for a good read on this week’s cash trade, especially with USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report slated for Friday afternoon.

     Cash hog index declines. The CME lean hog index is down 29 cents to $66.48 (as of Jan. 11), ending a three-day string of gains. While there’s a general sense the cash market has put in a seasonal low, traders may be cautious buyers as February lean hog futures finished last Friday $5.42 above today’s cash quote.

— Quotes of note:

• Consistent growth in retail sales (data released Wednesday) would suggest that consumer spending remains strong in the face of elevated interest rates.  “The cost of borrowing for consumers remains high and student loan payments restarted in October, but job growth is still strong and wage growth is still strong and higher incomes are ultimately the key driver for retail sales,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. 
   
• “A recession in the year ahead seems less likely than it appeared at the start of 2023, since interest rates are trending lower, gas prices are down from last year, and incomes are growing faster than inflation,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. (Source: WSJ survey)
   

— How Dr. Vince Malanga, president of LaSalle Economics, sizes up key economic indicators and potential scenarios:

• Productivity surge: Malanga suggests there is a potential for a productivity surge, with Labor Dept. data showing that aggregate hours worked remained unchanged in the final quarter of the previous year. He says this situation, coupled with estimates of GDP growth around 2.5%, implies a potential 2.5% productivity growth. Such productivity growth is seen as positive for profit margins and disinflation because it keeps unit cost pressures at bay.
• Inflationary pressures appear to be receding. In December, consumer prices rose 3.4% yearly, with the core rate at 3.9% annually. Producer price changes were more subdued, and Malanga believes the prospects for continued moderation seem favorable. Factors contributing to this, he notes, include downward pressure on both hard and soft commodities due to enhanced supply conditions. However, he warns that potential disruptions to Red Sea shipping lanes are a wild card that could affect this trend.
• FOMC meeting and interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet in March 19-20 (first 2024 session is Jan. 30-31). Malanga says the FOMC's mid-March decision could depend on labor conditions. Weakness in service sector jobs was observed in December, and future reports on jobless claims could provide clues, he signals. Measurable weakness in the labor market is seen as a potential trigger for an early rate cut by the FOMC.
• Market reactions: Malanga wonders how financial markets might react to a rate cut. Investors could respond in various ways, he says, from raising the odds of a recession and adjusting profit expectations to taking comfort in the idea that the Federal Reserve is ready to support economic activity.
• Fixed income markets: The long end of the bond market is expected to face a significant increase in supply as corporate debt is refinanced, and treasury debt issuance continues to rise, Malanga observes. He says this could lead to higher bond rates while short rates ease, potentially steepening the yield curve. He notes the impact this could have on mortgage rates and home affordability for potential buyers.
• Policy measures: Malanga suggests that policymakers have several options to support the economy, particularly in an election year. These measures could include modifying or eliminating quantitative tightening programs and supporting the bond and mortgage markets.
   

— Probability of a recession is down sharply, according to WSJ’s latest survey of economists — but for a lot of people it’s still going to feel like a recession. Business and academic economists surveyed by the WSJ lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, to 39% from 48% in the October survey (link). Still, economists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024, about half its normal long-run rate, and a significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023.

— The Fed is widely expected to cut rates this year, though economists are divided over when. Markets currently expect the first cut at the Fed’s March 19-20 meeting, but only 19% of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal agree. Roughly a third expect the first rate cut at the April 30-May 1 meeting, and just over a third at the June 11-12 gathering. Economists also expect fewer rate cuts than the market, seeing just one or two quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of June, compared with three by markets. The current target is between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 22-year high.

— The Fed and its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve increased its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds during the pandemic to provide liquidity to the financial system. However, since last year, they have been reducing these purchases by letting bonds mature without replacement. Some believe the Fed might start slowing down this process of shrinking its balance sheet in March by reducing the monthly reduction by $10 billion to $15 billion. This is because the Fed doesn’t want to tighten the money supply too quickly, especially with inflation easing. A slower pace of shedding bonds could be seen as a signal that the Fed might consider interest rate cuts later in 2024. The FOMC’s May or June meeting could be a likely time for an initial interest rate cut, especially if progress is made in controlling inflation.

Eurozone inflation expectations fall to near 2-year low. Median consumer expectations for Eurozone inflation over the next 12 months dipped to 3.2% in November 2023, marking the lowest rate since February 2022 and down from the previous month's 4.0%, the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey showed. Simultaneously, expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased to 2.2% from 2.5%, also hitting its lowest level since early 2022. Additionally, there was a slight decline in uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months.

Market perspectives:

— Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher, with the euro and British pound weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose, trading around 4.01%, with a positive tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were higher, with U.S. crude at around $73.45 per barrel and Brent at around $79.20 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were down ahead of US trading, with gold around $2,042 per troy ounce and silver around $23.19 per troy ounce.

— Codelco, the largest copper producer globally, has reported a significant decrease in its copper output, reaching its lowest production levels in 25 years. This decline can be attributed to a series of accidents and delays in crucial upgrades at its mines over the past year. Ruben Alvarado, who assumed the role of chief executive in the previous year, aims to turn around Codelco's fortunes by implementing reforms within the company's management structure.

— USDA daily export sale: 126,700 MT corn to Mexico during 2023-2024 marketing year

— India decided to extend lower import duties on crude palm oil, crude sunflower oil, and crude soyoil until March 2025. Initially set to expire in March, this move comes in response to rising inflation in the country, and the government's efforts to control increasing prices. However, it has drawn criticism from oilseed growers in India who argue that these lower duties have a negative impact on them by keeping prices low for the oilseeds used in cooking oil production.

— India has no plans to import wheat. India does not plan to import wheat and its farmers are likely to harvest a bumper crop that will boost stockpiles, the country’s trade minister said on Saturday. He noted “ground reports” indicated a record crop of 114 MMT. India’s wheat stocks at state warehouses stood at 16.47 MMT as of Jan. 1, the lowest since 2017. The minister noted India would for now continue its export curbs on wheat, rice and sugar.

— AgRural slashes Brazilian soybean production forecast. Brazil-based consulting firm AgRural now estimates the country’s soybean crop at 150.1 MMT, down 9 MMT from its prior forecast. In addition to reduced production in Mato Grosso, AgRural cited downward adjustments in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. AgRural estimates Brazil’s total corn production at 114.1 MMT.

— Ag trade update: Japan is seeking 87,641 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender. Tunisia tendered to buy 150,000 MT of milling wheat and 50,000 MT of durum wheat – all optional origin. Algeria tendered to buy 160,000 MT of corn, 30,000 MT of feed barley and 50,000 MT of durum wheat – all optional origin. 

— NWS weather outlook: Snow continues across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... ...Additional freezing rain and elevation snowfall expected over the Pacific Northwest... ...Brief reprieve from the brutal cold after this morning; another Arctic blast expected late this week.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Soybeans and wheat firmer, corn weaker to start the week
     • Cordonnier cuts Brazil crop estimates, raises Argy production forecasts
     • Generally favorable conditions in Brazil, erratic rains for Argentina
     • Record NOPA soybean crush expected
     • Temps not expected to be quite as cold across central United States

— U.S. lawmakers reached an agreement to prevent a partial government shutdown by hoping to pass another temporary spending bill. This stopgap spending measure will provide funding for certain government agencies (including USDA) until March 1, while others will receive funding until March 8.

     The Senate has initiated procedural votes on the bill and is scheduled to hold a cloture vote tonight. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is urging bipartisan cooperation to swiftly pass the continuing resolution and send it to President Biden for approval before the funding deadline on Friday.

     But there is opposition from some hardline Republicans, notably the House Freedom Caucus, who view this bill as a form of surrender. They are critical of the temporary funding solution. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will not go through the Rules Committee but instead will rely on the suspension calendar to get this bill through. Floor passage under this requires a two-thirds majority, or 290 votes. Link to our special report on the topic.

     Of note: The House has scrapped its votes tonight due to snowfall/icy conditions in the Washington area. House leaders want to begin debate on non-controversial bills today. The House Rules Committee will also try to meet.

— Will GOP rebel try to oust House speaker? Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made clear on Fox News that she isn’t threatening to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) over a stopgap spending bill, but would force a vote on Johnson’s removal if he crafts a border security deal with Democrats that she rejects, which also funds aid to Ukraine. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said a bipartisan Senate border compromise would be dead-on-arrival in the House. He told Bloomberg TV that he was confident that Johnson would oppose the Senate plan. Johnson told Republican lawmakers Congress can’t resolve the border issue until a Republican is back in the White House, Punchbowl News reported.

     The Office of Management and Budget has sent shutdown guidance to federal agencies, agency officials said. OMB is required to do so one week before a potential shutdown.

— Disaster aid likely to be included in bipartisan tax package proposal. To woo lawmakers from areas impacted by storms and wildfires, a disaster tax relief bill is expected to be included in a tax package framework working its way through Congress.

     According to Punchbowl News, the coming package reportedly includes:

• Bringing back full, upfront deductions for domestic research and development costs along with bigger deductions for businesses’ interest expenses and purchases of machinery and equipment — all through 2025. It’s also expected to increase immediate deductions that smaller businesses can take for buying equipment and machinery, and raise the threshold to $1,000 for sending tax forms for payments to certain non-employees.
• Child tax credit: The deal would gradually raise the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 for families who owe less than that in taxes. It would also allow low-income families with multiple children to phase in eligibility for more benefits faster, and let families use the previous year’s income to qualify for benefits in 2024 and 2025. The child tax credit’s maximum benefit would be tied to inflation, with a potential increase from $2,000 to $2,100 likely in 2025.

— Hamas released a video of three hostages and said it would announce their fate, an apparent effort to pressure Israel to secure their release. Hamas said on Monday that two of the hostages captured on Oct. 7 had been killed in Israeli airstrikes and released images that appeared to show their bodies, but the Israeli military cast doubt on the claim. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, chief spokesman for the Israeli military, said at a press briefing that at least one of the hostages was not killed by its forces. “That’s a Hamas lie,” he said. He did not address the fate of the other hostage. “We are investigating the event and its circumstances, examining the images distributed by Hamas, alongside additional information at our disposal,” he added.

— Israel's war in Gaza has brought famine with "such incredible speed," the United Nations relief chief said Monday, as he warned that the "great majority" of 400,000 Gazans are starving in the besieged enclave.

— Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for attacks near an American consulate in northern Iraq, saying it targeted Israel’s “espionage headquarters.” Local officials said four people were killed. None were American. America said the attacks — carried out near Erbil, the capital of semi-autonomous Kurdistan — were “reckless”.

— Cold didn’t impact Ukraine’s winter crops. Heavy frosts across almost all Ukrainian regions in the first half of January did not have a negative impact on winter grain crops, which are in mostly satisfactory condition, analyst APK-Inform quoted government scientists as saying. “Such weather conditions have no negative impact on wintering of winter crops and today winter crops in Ukraine are in satisfactory condition,” APK-Inform cited Ukraine’s National Agrarian Academy as saying of the recent frosts.

— Ukraine’s commander-in-chief claimed that the country’s air force shot down a Russian spy plane and caused serious damage to another. Valery Zaluzhny said the strikes took place on Sunday over the Sea of Azov, off the northern coast of Crimea. If confirmed, it would be a significant blow to the Kremlin. Russia is believed to have only six of the A-50 planes in operation.
 

— Vilsack keeps suggesting Congress should tap CCC Charter Act to boost reference prices. In recent months, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has suggested Congress should use the Commodity Credit Corp. (CCC), Charter Act to find a “creative way” to raise reference prices in the next farm bill. But Vilsack has not provided extended comments on his suggestion.

     Veteran farm policy sources say there are a couple of ways Vilsack’s suggestion could be taken. They include:

1. Take away the Ag Secretary’s discretionary authority under the Charter Act and use that “savings” to permanently beef up reference prices. However, that does not guarantee a lot of savings, unless the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) re-evaluates how it forecasts CCC spending. Link to a Southern Ag Today article on this topic.
   
   Would Vilsack really want his hands tied relative to tapping CCC? He complained when congressional appropriators took away his authority before. 
    
2. Congress could grant the Ag Secretary the authority to raise reference prices using his authority under the CCC. But analysts note he has full authority under CCC Charter Act Sec. 5(a) to “Support the prices of agricultural commodities (other than tobacco) through loans, purchases, payments, and other operations.”  This is part of the authority the appropriators once took away. So, Vilsack has this at his disposal already as he has very broad authority in this regard. Some argue he could raise reference prices, not that Congress would endorse that approach because some Republicans fret he would likely do it in a very partisan way like he has done with recent ERP payments.

     Bottom line: So, what is Vilsack trying to do relative to his comments which are not very detailed? Some speculate he is trying to force House/Senate Republicans into a box where they are limited to existing CCC spending to fund Title 1. They say he is doing it to distract from efforts to (1) pull the IRA/Climate Bill funding inside the farm bill and (2) reign in SNAP Thrifty Food Plan adjustments in the future. 

— President Biden says U.S. does not support independence for Taiwan, after voters there defied China and returned the governing Democratic Progressive Party — which has sought to limit Beijing’s influence — to a third straight term leading the island country in William Lai. Meanwhile, a group of former U.S. officials arrived in Taiwan to meet outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen for talks that will test the recent improvement of ties between Washington and Beijing following the pivotal election.

— Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) renewed his call for stricter regulations on the sale of U.S. farmland to China, following a report that revealed a Chinese billionaire, Chen Tianqiao, is one of the largest landowners in the United States. Tester urged Congress to prevent "foreign adversaries" from acquiring US farmland and agribusinesses.

     Chen Tianqiao, who amassed his wealth from an online video game company, owns 198,000 acres of Oregon timberland purchased in 2015, making him the 82nd-largest landowner in the U.S. and the second-largest foreign landowner.

     Tester emphasized the need for Congress to take action to protect American agricultural security considering this situation. He also sent letters to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, requesting a review of Chen's land purchase and recommendations to enhance the tracking and vetting of large land sales to foreign buyers.

     Last year, Tester co-sponsored a bill with Sen. Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican, aimed at prohibiting entities from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran from buying U.S. agricultural land or businesses. Although the legislation passed the Senate with broad support, it was ultimately removed from the final version by House Republicans.

     Foreign ownership of U.S. land, especially land used for farming, has become a contentious issue in recent years. As of 2021, approximately 40 million acres of American agricultural land were owned by non-U.S. entities, with Chinese ownership accounting for a small fraction, equivalent to 0.03% of all U.S. farmland, according to USDA data.

— China’s Q1 soybean imports seen slowing to four-year low as hog herds shrink. China’s once-soaring soybean demand will slow by about a fifth in the first quarter from a year earlier after record slaughter shrank pig herds, pressuring prices ahead of an expected glut of South American beans, according to a Reuters report citing analysts and traders. China is expected to import about 18.5 MMT of soybeans in the first quarter, down from 23.1 MMT a year ago and the smallest since 2020, four research and trading firms estimate. At least half the beans are expected to be from the U.S.

— As Americans eat more cheese and butter, U.S. farmers are scrambling to get their cows to produce fattier milk. The efforts include using different cow breeds and feed mixes, and making sure animals are comfortable and don’t get too hot. The result is that the average amount of butterfat in milk produced by U.S. dairy herds has climbed past 4% and above the previous record set during World War II. Link to more via the Wall Street Journal.

— Kroger-Albertsons merger delayed amid regulatory discussions and asset sale. The proposed merger between U.S. grocery giants Kroger and Albertsons, along with the sale of assets to C&S Wholesale Grocers, is facing delays in its expected completion date. In a joint statement, the companies announced that due to ongoing discussions with regulators such as the Federal Trade Commission and individual state Attorneys General, they now anticipate closing the deal in the first half of Kroger's fiscal year 2024. Initially, they had expected to finalize the transactions earlier in the calendar year.

     The companies emphasized that they are actively engaged in ongoing dialogue with regulators regarding the proposed merger and divestiture plan. Kroger had put forth the proposal to acquire Albertsons in October, and prior to that, in September, they had entered into a definitive agreement with C&S Wholesale Grocers for the sale of specific stores and assets as part of their merger plans.

     Despite the extended timeline, the companies stated that they had considered the possibility of such delays in their merger agreement and divestiture plan. Kroger has committed to investing $500 million to reduce prices immediately upon completing the merger and has pledged to protect union jobs, with no intentions of closing stores or laying off frontline associates. Additionally, Kroger plans to allocate an additional $1 billion to enhance wages and benefits for all associates after the merger's completion.

— In November, U.S. pork exports reached new records in key markets, driven by outstanding performances in Mexico, Central America, and Colombia. These figures are based on data from USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

     Pork exports to Mexico, a leading market, reached a value record in November, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. Export volume also surged by 14%, totaling 100,313 metric tons, making it the second-largest on record, with only October 2023 surpassing it.

     Central America saw big growth in pork exports in November, with significant increases in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Shipments to the region surged by 35% compared to the previous year, reaching 16,565 metric tons, setting monthly records.

     South Korea also experienced substantial growth in pork exports in November, up by 19% compared to the previous year, with shipments totaling 17,406 metric tons.

     Oceania witnessed a notable rebound in pork exports throughout 2023, and this trend continued in November, with shipments nearly tripling compared to the previous year, reaching 6,414 metric tons, which is an impressive 186% increase.

     In terms of production, exports accounted for 30.1% of total pork production in November, with muscle cuts making up 26.2%. Both figures increased by approximately 1 percentage point compared to the previous year.

— Trump wins Iowa caucuses by wide margin, sets sights on 2024 GOP nomination. In the Iowa Republican caucuses, former President Donald Trump secured a significant victory, solidifying his front-runner status in the GOP primary for the 2024 presidential nomination. Trump received an impressive 51% of the vote and it appears he won 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in second place with just over 21% of the vote, while former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley finished in a distant third.

     The primary in New Hampshire next Tuesday may present a different dynamic, with polls showing Haley in a stronger position.

     Additionally, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who finished fourth in the Iowa caucuses, decided to suspend his campaign and has immediately endorsed former President Trump.

     Meanwhile, Doug Burgum endorsed Trump for president. The North Dakota governor ran for president this cycle, but suspended his campaign last year. His early exit and refusal to attack rivals puts him in a strong position to serve in a GOP White House.

     Of note: Iowa has only identified the eventual nominee of either party six times in nearly 50 years.

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