Market Snapshot | January 12, 2024

Note: Grain and livestock markets will trade normal hours today, but will be closed Monday, Jan. 15 for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so there will be no Pro Farmer updates. Grain markets will reopen with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 15. Livestock markets will resume trade at 8:30 a.m. CT on Tuesday, Jan. 16.

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are favoring the downside as traders await USDA’s crop reports at 11 a.m. CT.
• Today is one of the busiest report days of the year for the grain markets. USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report and Quarterly Grain Stocks at 11 a.m. CT. Much of the focus will be on USDA’s “final” crop estimates, but Dec. 1 grain stocks have a history of providing market-moving surprises, especially for corn.
• China’s ag ministry raised its 2023 corn production estimate by 610,000 MT to 288.84 MMT due to increased planted acreage. It made no changes to the 2023-24 corn import forecast, which stands at 17.5 MMT.
• March corn has tested initial support at $4.55 1/4, with additional support at $4.52 1/2. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $4.61 1/4 stands as initial resistance. From there, the next area of resistance stands at the 40-day moving average of $4.76 1/4.

Soybeans are trading mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, while soymeal is mixed. March soyoil is modestly firmer.

• Soybeans have eased from overnight strength amid positioning ahead of today’s USDA updates.   
• China’s ag ministry lowered its 2023 soybean crop estimate 50,000 MT to 20.84 MMT. It made no changes for 2023-24 soybean imports, which are forecast at 97.25 MMT.
• China’s soybean imports in December missed expectations with a decline of 7% from a year ago, customs data showed earlier today, but total 2023 imports jumped for the first time in three years.
• March soybeans are trading narrowly within Thursday’s range, limited by resistance at $12.46, while initial support lies at the previous session’s low of $12.34 1/4.

SRW and HRS wheat futures are mostly a penny to two cents lower, while HRW is 2 to 3 cents lower.

• Wheat futures are edging lower as looming overhead resistance continues to limit buyer interest.
• Wheat in North America, Europe and the western CIS should be sufficiently protected from bitter cold temps by snow, notes World Weather Inc. However, snow depths will be light in Montana and the western Dakotas, though very little, if any, permanent crop damage is expected as long as at least some snow cover is present.
• Senalia, which operates France’s biggest grain export terminal, said earlier today its shipments from Rouen port were picking up after a disappointing start to the season marked by stiff competition from cheaper Black Sea supplies.
• March SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 40-, 10- and 100-day moving averages of $6.07, $6.08 3/4 and $6.09 1/2, respectively. Initial support is at $5.98 3/4.

Live cattle are moderately lower, while feeders are posting sharp losses at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are pulling after Thursday’s solid gains, with overhead resistance and limited cash cattle trade dampening buying efforts.
• Inclement weather has reduced packers’ urgency to aggressively bid for cattle, with only light sales so far this week at generally steady prices in the far northern market.
• Wholesale cattle prices continued higher Wednesday, with Choice rising $2.82 to $285.89, while Select rose $3.00 to $269.94, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $15.95. Movement totaled 115 loads.
• February live cattle are consolidating mostly between the 50- and 10-day moving averages of $172.32 and $170.85. A breakout of the range will face additional resistance/support at $173.23 and the 40-day moving average of $170.44, respectively.

Lean hogs are moderately lower at midsession.

• Hog futures are pulling back from recent gains ahead of the extended weekend.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 31 cents to $66.77 as of Jan.10, marking five of the last seven days with gains.
• The pork cutout value slipped $2.12 Thursday to $84.54 amid a drop in all cuts aside from primal ribs and bellies. Movement totaled 257.4 loads.
• February lean hogs have rebounded from a test of initial support at $71.67, while Thursday’s close of $72.60 is serving as initial resistance.